美国石油服务与设备2018年Q3盈利预览（Part 2）.docx

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1、OilServices&Equipment3Q18EarningsPreviewPartII:Setups,Hurdles&QuickTakes;ExpecttheCutstoKeeponComin’NorthAmericaEquityResearch29October2018Aswecrossthemidwaypointin3Q18earningsseason,wearepreviewingthesecondhalfofreportsfromtheweekofOctober29thforward.Justasinourfirst“early

2、”previewinstallment,weprovidequicktakesonwherewethinkbuy-sideandsell-sideexpectationsdeviateandwhatpotentialcatalystswe’llbemonitoringonthecalls.Amorein-depthsummaryofourthoughtsandestimatesv.consensuscanbefoundintheinterior.Overall,weexpectthebalanceofsmid-capreportsduring3

3、Qearningsseasonshouldbringmoreofthesame:negativedatapointspointingtoU.S.completionshutdownsbeginninginmid-Novemberandknock-onpricingcontagionacrossbasinsandcompletions-leveredendmarkets.However,withinvestorsincreasinglydiscountingpotentialchallengesthrough1H19,webelievefurth

4、ercutstonumberscaneventuallybeperceivedashealthyandfostera“badnewsisgoodnews”dynamic(perhapsduringDecemberconferenceseason).Wecontinuetoview4Q18asthemorelikely“lastcut”,butincreasinglyseetacticallong-termvalueopportunitiesatcurrentvaluationsforthosewilling/abletostomachnear-

5、termvolatility(amidbroader-basedmarketunwind).3Q18OneLinersPositive:·WFT:Solid3Q;buyaheadoftheprintonpotentialdivestiturenews,FYFCFtargetstillaspirationalbutworkingcapitaltrendsdirectionallypositive·WHD:4Q/2019numberslikelygettrimmedbutFCF/returnsoutlookincontextofpotentials

6、trategicpivot(cashreturnsv.growth)keepbullcaseintact·MRC:3Qand4Qlikelyokay,thoughmid-anddownstreamprojectqueuecriticaltobridging2019expectationstocompany’s~$300-350mm“mid-cycle”adjustedEBITDArange·NINE:3Qde-riskedafterpre-announcementbeat,4Qlikelybetter-than-fearedsupportedb

7、yPermiancustomermixandplacementofadditionalcapacity;MagnumoutlookandnewproductfieldtrialsofferupsidecatalyststobootNeutral:·BHGE:Solid3Q;4Qconsensusblessedwithcaveatofyearendproductsales,long-termconsensusexpectationsanchored(fornow)·HP:WeacknowledgeHP’snumberslikelyhavesome

8、upwardbiasasupgradecyclecontinuesbutwatchforupsidesurpriseoncapexneedstolim