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1、ABGlobalResearch9October2018EquitiesMLPs&MidstreamEnergyAmericas3QEarningsPlaybookLookingForwardtoAnotherStrongEarningsSeason2Q18earningsseasonwascharacterizedasthebeatandraiseearningsseasonandweexpecttheearningsstrengthtocontinueinto3Qalthoughinvestorsareprobablymorepreparedforastrongerea
2、rningsseasonthisquarter.2Qwasuncharacteristicinthatsequentiallyitwasmodestlyupvs1Q(2Qseasonallowpoint)whichcombinedwithmacrotrendssuggestsastrongset-upfor3Q.AtamacrolevelwearelookingforasequentialincreaseinEBITDAof1.3%onthebackof+4.6%/4.9%OilandNatGasproductiongrowthin3Q18andleveragelevels
3、tocontinuetodecline.3Qisaninterestingearningsseason,mostwon’tgiveguidancefor2019yet,butsomewillgiveindicationsaroundcapexandvolumes.MorecapexislikelyanotherthemeandweexpectsomeinvestorswillbegintogetanxiousaroundtheamountofPermiancrudeinfrastructurebeingadded.On4Qcolourwewouldnotetherehasb
4、eenasofteninginrigcountgrowthto~flatQoQhence,wewouldwenotbesurprisedifthereweretemperedgrowthindicationsfor4Qgiveninfrastructurebottlenecksandfor2019.Top10MacroThemes(innoparticularorder)Themesweexpectdiscussedoncalls,1)NGLpricingexposure(DCP,TRGP,EPD,ETP);2)Fraccapacity(EPD,TRGP,ENLK,ETPO
5、KEDCP);3)theoreticaldiscussiononhowtodealwithtightfraccapacity;4)moreexportdocksforLPGandEthane;5)MtB:Conwayspread;6)PlethoraofPermianCrudepipelineannouncements;7)CrudedifferentialsfromCanada;8)moresignallingthepotentialfordistributiongrowth;9)Coloradovoteonproposition112;10)questionsonthe
6、structureforWES/WGP,ENLK/ENLC,DCP(IDRconversion)(clickhere).UBSEvidenceLab:Rigsillow–LookingAheadto2019VolumeExpectationsRigcountgrowthslowedin3Qto+1.2%afterconsecutivestrong1Qand2Qof+7.5%,+5.0%,respectively,implyingslowinggrowthinto1Q19(2quarterlead).RigsillowidentifiedWES,TRGP&DCPasthose
7、seeingthemostgrowtharoundtheirassetsfollowedbyCEQP.EIAexpects3Q18crudeandnatgasprodtoincrease4.6%/4.9%QoQ,respectively.Wecontinuetoexpectstronggrowthin2H18,followingthestrongmacrosupportweidentifiedinourpreviousRigsillowreport(clickhere);however,productiongrow
