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1、Utilities&Power3Q18EarningsPreview:FocusListCNP(long),SR(short),UpgradingDtoOW,DowngradingEXCtoNNorthAmericaEquityResearch09October2018EarningsseasonandtheEEIConferenceinmid-Novwillbeapreviewfor2019formanycompanies,andstrongweatheracrosstheU.S.pointstoa
2、potentialforbeatandraiseactivityat3Qforthisyear.Temperatureswere26%hotterthannormaland15%hotterthan3Q17,withNewEnglandandMid-Atlanticstatespostingthemoststrengthvsnormal.Electionseasonwillalsobebusy,andwearemostcloselywatchingracesinGA,IL,NMandAZ.Wearead
3、dingOW-ratedCNPtoourU.S.AnalystFocusListasalongvalueideaandUW-ratedSRasashortidea,andareupgradingDtoOWfromNanddowngradingEXCtoNfromOW.Headinginto3QandEEIwealsofavorXEL,PEG,ATOandBKHandaremildlycautiousonDUK.·AnalystFocusList:CNPaddedlong,SRaddedshort.Wes
4、eeCNPlong-termEPSgrowthasbiasedtotheupside,driveninpartbyanupcomingcapexupdatepotentiallyassoonaslaterthisyearandmultipleexpansionasdealbenefitscomemoreclearlyintofocusinthenext3-6months,inouropinion.Conversely,weseeSR’s2018earningsasunsustainableandsupp
5、ortedbynumerousone-timebenefits,andweviewmanagement’s4-7%earningsgrowthexpectationfor2019offarevisedbaseasaspirational.AsthecompanymovesintoFY19,wealsoseeincreasedbusinessriskfromstorageandpipelineinvestmentsresultinginmultiplecontraction.·UpgradingDtoOW
6、,downgradingEXCtoN.Disenteringaperiodofbalancesheetimprovement,de-riskedbusinessmixandoverallsimplification,withorwithouttheSCGassets.WeseemodestupsideearningspotentialfromtheSCGdeal,anyBlueRacersaleorsuccessfulconclusionoftheCTenergyprocurement.Wemodela
7、5.2%2019Edividendyieldand4-5%EPSgrowthexcludingtheseitemsin2020-21,andnoteDsharestradeat17.0x2019EPS,a3%discounttolargepeers.EXCsharesarenowpricinginampleoptionalityforPJMcapacitymarketreformandwemodelbelowconsensus2021EPSandviewanyadditionalcostcutprogr
8、amannouncementasrequiredtooffsetearningsdeclinesinthe2020-21period.Weappreciatethethematicde-riskingandimprovementpathEXCmanagementhasemployed,butseebenefitsfromtheimprovedbalancesheet,utilitygrowthandpower&capacityreforme
