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1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanks3Q18EPSPreview:PositiveLeverage,BenignCreditQuality,ActiveBuybackThe3Q18earningsseasonstartsOct12andtrendsshouldapproximatethoseofferedatourmid-SeptConference.Thisincludes:stabletomodestlyhighernetinterestincomereflectingcontinuedbutmodestaverageloangrowth
2、(broad-basedbytype,geography),stabletomodestlywiderNIMs(mostbanksstillassetsensitiveandINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Large-CapBanksJasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580EquityResearch9October2018betasareincreasingatameasuredpace,butlackofLiborincreaseformostof
3、thequarterweighs)and1extraday;variedfeeincometrends(higherservicechargesandassetmanagement/trustfeesbutmoremixedresultsfortrading,investmentbankingandmortgage);controlledexpenses(efficiencyimprovementsandbranchrationalizationmodestlyoffsetbytechspend,positiveoperatingleverageco
4、ntinues,DIFreductionmorelikelya4Q18event);higherloanlossprovisions(asreservereleasescannotgoonforever)thoughstillverybenignassetqualitymetrics(loanlossesarelessthanhalftheirhistoricalaverage);andapick-upinsharerepurchase(medianbankbuyingback5.8%ofitssharesinCCAR2018upfrom4.5%in
5、CCAR2017).Weexpectthemajorityofourcoveragetopost3Q18EPSthatisinlinewithorbetterthanconsensus.Welooktobemorethan$0.01aboveatGS,MS,JPM,ALLYandSTIandonlybelowatMTB,COF,WFC,KEYandFITB.Recall,rightaftertheConference,weincreasedour3Q18EPSestimatesatJPM(+$0.03)andUSB(+$0.01)butlowered
6、estimatesatSTT(-$0.09),STI(-$0.03),BK(-$0.02),KEY(-$0.01),andCMA(-$0.01).Assuch,weareonlymakingafewEPSchangesthismorning.Weareincreasingour3Q18EPSestimateatCOF(+$0.16)asJulyandAugustmonthlycreditdatawasbetterthanexpectedandlowerestimatesatBAC(-$0.02)andMS(-$0.11)reflectingsofte
7、rthanpreviouslyanticipatedcapitalmarketsresults.In3Q18,weexpectoperatingEPSatthemedianbanktoincrease31%y-o-y,aidedbytax-reformandhigherinterestrates.Linkedquartergrowthshouldbecloserto1%.Pre-taxincomeshouldincrease9%y-o-y,whilepre-taxincomepershareisslatedtorisecloserto13%.Welo
8、okforrevenuestogrow4.5%y-o-yandgain1%linkedquarter.Thi
