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1、EquityResearch11October2017U.S.Mid-CapBanksINDUSTRYUPDATE3Q17Preview:EPSCouldDisappoint,U.S.Mid-CapBanksbutBanksCanFallBackonGrowthNEUTRALUnchangedResultsseasonforourU.S.Mid-CapBanksbeginsonFridaythe13th.ThismightbeaForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandbitofabadomenforthegroup,asweprojectonlyt
2、woofour26ratedbanksexceedingearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetheconsensusEPSin3Q17.BycontrastwearebelowtheStreetat13banksandinlinetableonpage2.at11.Fortunately,wethinkourcoveredbanksendedthequarteronahighnotefromaloangrowthperspectiveandseeanotherquarterofhighsingle-digitannualizedgrowth.U.S
3、.Mid-CapBanksWealsoexpectmostbankstoissuehealthy4Q17loangrowthguidance.MatthewJ.Keating,CFA+12125268572Naturaldisastersaccountforagoodportionofourforecasted3Q17EPSmisses.Wematthew.keating@barclays.comaremostbelowthe3Q17consensusonacorepercentageEPSbasisat:BPOP(higherBCI,USloanlossprovisionsinthe
4、wakeofHurricaneMaria),PB(higherloanlossprovisionandJamesKureklowerfeeincometiedtoHurricaneHarvey),andTCBI(lowernetinterestincomeanda+12125267052higherHarvey-relatedloanlossprovision).Conversely,wearemostaboveat:SIVBjames.r.kurek@barclays.com(lowerloanlossprovision)andPBCT(highernetinterestincome
5、andlowerexpenses).BCI,USWiththeexceptionofBPOP,wherethedestructioninflictedbyHurricaneMariacouldhavelastingadverseeconomicimpact,weexpectthemarkettogenerallylookpasthurricaneinducedresultshortfallswiththeknowledgethattherebuildingprocessfromthesestormsalmostalwaysprovidesaregionaleconomicstimulu
6、s.2017and2018EPSestimatesrefinedtoreflectrecenttrends.Welowerour2017EPSestimatesat15banks(BKU,BOH,BPOP,CFR,FFBC,FHB,FULT,ISBC,PB,SBNY,SIVB,TCBI,WAL,WBS,andZION).Our2018EPSestimatesfallat13names(BOH,BPOP,CFR,EWBC,FFBC,FHB,FULT,ISBC,NYCB,PB,SBNY,WBS,andZION)andincreaseattwo(FIBKandWAL).Ourpricetar
7、getsdeclineatfourbanks(FHB,NYCB,BPOP,andSBNY)andincreaseatthree(DCOM,FIBK,andWAL).4Q17andpreliminary2018outlooksmaymattermorethan3Q17results.Wefeelalotbettertodayaboutourcoverage’soutlooksthanwedidwhenourGlobalFinancialServi
