资源描述：
《美国大型银行业2018年Q3每股收益回顾与展望.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanks3Q18EPSReview&Outlook-StocksCheapIntoYear-end:TrickorTreat?Bankstocksdown,butnotout.Banksstocksaredown9%YTD,whiletheS&P500isunchanged.Themostmentionedreasonscitedfortheunderperformance(accompaniedbyourretorts)havetendedtobe:softerthanexpectedloangrowth(tho
2、ughit’sstillpositiveandbroad-based),risingdepositbetas(thoughtheyarestillINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Large-CapBanksJasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580EquityResearch30October2018betterthanexpectations),aflatterthananticipatedyieldcurve(thoughNIMstillexpand
3、ing),concernsoverglobalgrowthamidtariffsheadlines,EMinstability,anduncertaintiesincountrieslikeTurkey,China,Venezuela,Argentina,SaudiArabia,etc.(isn’ttherealwayssomeregiontoworryabout?),abeliefthatweareinthefinalstageofthecurrentexpansioncycle(112consecutivemonthsofGDPgrowthvs.
4、U.S.recordof120,thoughAustraliaisonmonth430orso),anincreasinglycompetitivelendingenvironment(fromCLOs,BDCs,insurers,fintech,etc)andconcernsoverincreasedcorporateleverage(thoughagreatdealfundedbynon-banks),uncertaintyovertheadoptionofCECL(though2020eventanddoesn’tchangeactualloa
5、nlosses),worriesCongresswillchangeandoverturnpro-growthpolicies(evenifDemocratstaketheHouse,theycannotreversetaxcutordomuchaboutregulatorychanges),andalackofcatalysts(thoughFedhikes,capitalreturn,andregulatoryroll-backshouldcontinue).Still,resultsin3Q18weresound.Mostofourcovera
6、gebeatconsensusEPSexpectationsin3Q18(12thstraightquartermajoritybeat)andsawtheir2019consensusEPSestimatescontinuetomovehigher(medianbank+1.4%in1Q,+1.0%in2Q,+0.4%in3Q).Resultsalsoevidenceda1.3%ROAand17%ROTCEapproximatingpost-crisishighs,itsbestefficiencyratiosincepriortothefinan
7、cialcrisis,verybenignassetqualitymetrics,the8thstraightquarterofNIMexpansion–afeatnotseeninover15years,andthelargestquarterlydeclineinsharecountsincepriortothecrisis.Andrecentdatapointsappearconstructive.Friday’sH.8report(C&Iloansup8ofpast10weekstorecordhigh,CREup7ofthepast8wee
8、ks)andseasonalitypointtobetter4Q18loangrowth,animprove
