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1、October15,201810:00AMGMTMORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCDaraMohsenian,CFAEQUITYANALYSTDara.Mohsenian@morganstanley.com+1212761-6575PamelaKaufman,CFAEQUITYANALYSTPamela.Kaufman@morganstanley.com+1212761-7151BobDoctor,CFARESEARCHASSOCIATEBob.Doctor@morganstanley.co
2、m+1212761-7250FilippoFalorni,CFARESEARCHASSOCIATEFilippo.Falorni@morganstanley.com+1212296-4965ScottRotondiRESEARCHASSOCIATEScott.Rotondi@morganstanley.com+1212761-9196RoseVLauricellaRESEARCHASSOCIATERose.Lauricella@morganstanley.com+1212761-8118Sydne
3、yAAdamsRESEARCHASSOCIATESydney.Adams@morganstanley.com+1-212-761-1727ConsumerStaples
4、NorthAmericaQ3EPSPreview;StaySelectiveinaDifficultEnvironmentWeexpectgenerallyweakQ3resultsintheStaplesgroup,withFXheadwindslikelyworsethanmarketperceptionwithemergin
5、gmarketstransactionpressure,andmutedorganicsalesgrowthwithslowingEMmacrosandstillchallengingUSresults.68WeakQ3EPS,Riskto2018/19Consensus:WeexpectgenerallyweakQ3resultsacrosstheStaplesgroup,withincrementalFXheadwindspressuringtheforwardoutlook,particul
6、arlywithunappreciatedFXtransactionalheadwindsinemergingmarkets,continuedbranddemandfragmentation,privatelabelsharegains,andretailerfrictionpressureindevelopedmarkets,albeitwithimprovingsequentialpricing,aswellasmarketsharelossestolocalcompetitorsineme
7、rgingmarkets,Household&PersonalCareNorthAmericaIndustryViewCautiousBeveragesNorthAmerica68andinflatingoil-basedcommodities.IndustryViewAttractive68SectorThoughts:Longerterm,wecontinuetoprefertheBeveragesindustryFoodNorthAmerica68withinStaples(seeo
8、urrecentupgradetoAttractiveslidedeckhereandwebcastIndustryViewIn-Line68here),whichwebelievewillcontinuetoreportsuperiorfundamentalresults,withhigherpricingpower,greatermarginexpansion,andhigherEPSqualitygivenTobaccoNorthAmerica68WHAT'SCHANGED?FROM:
9、TO:historicalA&Pincreases,relativetotheFoodandHPCindustries,andgreaterstrategicpotentialvs.HPC.Beveragesin-linevaluationrelativetoHPCpeersIndustryViewIn-Line68ontheHouseholdProducts(HPC)industry,whichwerecentlydowngradedtoPriceTargetCoca-Col
