美国机械行业2018年q3盈利预览

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1、USMachineryQ3'18EarningsPreviewNorthAmericaEquityResearch09October2018OurMachinerycoveragehasunderperformedthebroadermarketYTD(down7%vs.S&P500up9%)butperformedin-linethroughQ3(up8%).Thegroupremains“cheap”relativetotheS&P500anddemandremainsverystrongacrossmostendmarkets;hi

2、gherrawmaterialcostsaremostlybeingpassedonthroughpricingbutlaborshortagesremainachallenge.Overall,companiesandindustrysourceswehavespokenwiththroughthequarterremainveryupbeatwithafewexceptions,mostnotablyglobalautomotiveandChinaHDtruck.Thisearningsseasonrepresentsanimporta

3、ntcatalystforthegroupascompaniesthatdeliversolidgrowthandincrementalprofitsarelikelytobere-ratedwhilethosethatunderwhelmonmarginsarelikelytocomeunderrenewedpressure,inourview.Investorshaveturnedtheirfocusto2019+and,whilecompanies(withDecemberyear-ends)areunlikelytoprovide2

4、019guidancethisquarter,ordersandbacklogsshouldlendsomeconfidenceinthedirectionofendmarkets.Wewillco-hostacalltodayat10amETwithSteveTusaandourcolleaguesinEuropeandJapan;pleasecontactusoryourJPMsalespersonfordial-indetails.1·Industrialactivitydecelerating.TheISMManufacturing

5、PMIcameinat59.8inSeptember,downfrom61.3inAugust;theNewOrderscomponentwas61.8inSeptember,down3.3-ptsfrom65.1inAugust(anddown2.6-ptsYoY).TheChinaMarkitPMIwas50.0inSeptember(down0.6-ptsMoManddown1.6-ptsYoY),thefirstmonthofnogrowthsinceMay’17.TheEurozoneMarkitPMIindexcameinat5

6、3.3inSeptember(down1.3-ptsMoManddown4.8-ptsYoY).·USdemandacrossindustriesremainsstrong.GrowthinUSshipments(indollars)remainedmostlypositiveinQ3TD(throughAugust)withtrucks+12%YoY,constructionmachinery+14%,farmmachinery+15%,electricalequipment+11%,turbines+9%andindustrialmac

7、hinery+3%.Lightingshipmentsweredown2%YoYinQ3TDwhileminingandoil/gasmachineryshipmentswereflat.OverallUSconstructionactivityremainsrobustwithanumberofnotablebrightspots:$55BofstateandlocalhighwaycontractshadbeenawardedthroughAugust(+7%YTD)andairportinvestmentsare+35%YTD.Dat

8、acenterinvestment,thoughoutsidethescopeofgovernmentdataonconstructionactivity,remainsakey