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1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanks3Q1810-QReview&CurrentEvents4Q18Outlook:Expectationsfor4Q18relativeto3Q18includehighernetinterestincomereflectingimprovedloangrowthandwidernetinterestmargins;variedfeeincometrends(higherservicecharges/cardfeesandseasonallylowertradingrevenuesandmor
2、tgage);controlledexpenses(efficiencyimprovementsandbranchclosuresmodestlyoffsetbyseasonalincreasesandtechspend);higherloanlossprovisions(asreservereleasescan’tgoonforever)withstillverybenignassetqualitymetricsINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Large-C
3、apBanksJasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580EquityResearch19November2018(howeverNCOstypicallyseasonallyhigherin4Q);andactivesharerepurchase(period-endsharedeclinein3Q18thelargestinatleastadecade).Weexpectone-timechargesin4Q18atBK($0.05,HQrelocation),CMA($0.05,restructuring),
4、HBAN($0.04,branchclosures&securityloss),STI($0.11,pensionplantermination),andSTT($0.10,CRD).WFCshouldhaveagain(~$0.08)tiedtoitspick-a-paysale.Rates:BAC,CMA,HBAN,CFG,C,RF,STTscreenasrelativelymoreasset-sensitivefora100bpparallelshiftintheyieldcurve,whileALLY,NTRS,FITB,CO
5、FandUSBstandoutontheotherend.BKKEY,CFG,HBANandBACshowedthegreatestincreasesintheirassetsensitivity,whileNTRS,STT,FITB,BBTandWFCexperiencedthelargestdeclines.Beta:At42%,ourcoverage’sdepositbetaremainedrelativelystablein3Q18with2Q18.Cycle-to-datethecumulativebetais26%.Int
6、he2004cycle,postthefirst175bpsofrateincreases,thecumulativebetawas45%.Sofarthiscycle,ALLY,COF,CFGandBKhavepostedthehighestdepositbetas,whileSTT,RF,MTB,andCMAstandoutontheotherend.Inthe2004-2006cycle,CMA,STT,NTRS,STI,andFITBhadrelativelyhigherbetas,whileBAC,KEY,MTB,USB,a
7、ndCFGwerebelowpeers.Post3Q18resultsandafterexaminingseveraldepositcharacteristics,lookingout,KEY,COF,C,USB,andWFCcouldhaverelativelylowerdepositbetasthanCMA,STI,MTBandRF.DIF:WeexpecttoheariftheFDIC’sDIFratioreached1.35%in3Q18tomorrow.Atthatpointourcoveragewillnolongerpa
8、ya$0.8bnquarterlysurcharge(1.2%ofcosts).C,CFG,ALLY,RF,FITB,PNCandJPMareexpectedtoseethelargestEPSlifts,at2%-pl
