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1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanksU.S.-BasedInvestmentBanks2Q18SummaryandOutlookINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch23July2018Capitalmarketsresultswerebetterthanexpectedin2Q18.Ourcoverage’scapitalmarketsrevenuestotaled$29.0bn,itshighest2Qsince2Q09,nineyearsago.Revenues
2、increased9%y-o-ybutfell7%from1Q18,whichapproximateda7-yearhigh.Thiswasbetterthanourexpectationsof5%y-o-ygrowthanda10%linkedquarterdecline.Revenuesin1H18increased8%over1H17andmarkeditsstrongest1Hsince1H10.FICCrose7%y-o-yandfell16%linkedquarter.Relativeto2Q17growthwasfueledbyimprovedperf
3、ormanceinmacroproducts,withparticularstrengthincommodities(easycomps).Webelievecredittradingwasmoremixed.Sequentially,credit(widerspreads),commodities(lowerperformanceinnatgas,fewerstructuredtransactions),rates(range-boundyields),andcurrencies(EMweak)allgenerallydeclined.Equitytradingi
4、ncreased13%y-o-ybutdeclined11%from1Q18,itshighestlevelinatleast9years.Thismarkedthefirstquarterofback-to-backdouble-digity-o-ygrowthquartersince1H15(equitieshadmovedbetweenup3%todown3%ineachofpriorsixquarters).Onay-o-ybasis,growthwasbroad-basedwithincreasesinprimebrokerage(balancesup,a
5、idedbyseasonality)andderivatives,followedbycash.Resultsbenefitedfromcontinuedhighermarketvolatilityy-o-y,thoughreducedvolatility,aswellaslowervolumes,versus1Q18constrainedlinkedquarterperformance.Investmentbankingfeesincreased8%y-o-yandrose17%sequentially.Thiswasbetterthanourexpectatio
6、nofamodesty-o-yincreaseand10%growthlinkedquarter.From1Q18,bothequity(+30%;activeIPOactivity)anddebtunderwriting(+4%;increasedacquisition-relatedfinancingactivityovershadowinglessinvestment-gradeissuanceamidhigherrates),aswellasadvisory(+9%;increaseincompletedM&A,particularlylargerstrat
7、egictransactionandcross-borderactivity)expanded.Relativeto2Q17,compratiosatJPMCIBandMSISGwerelittlechanged,thoughGS’sdroppedfrom41%to37%.GSwasalso41%in1Q18.Ineachofthepast8years,GS’s2Qcompratiomatched1Q.ItappearsasGSbuildsscaleinplatformbusinessesthereisamigrationfromcomptonon-compex
