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1、EconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportOCS-20d
3、April13,2020NextreleaseisMay14,2020OilCropsOutlookMarkAshU.S.SoybeanProductExportsGainfromLaggingArgentineTradeThismonth,USDAboostsitsforecastofthe2019/20soybeancrushby20millionbushelstoarecord2.125billion,basedonsteady
4、soybeanmealdemand.AcurrentshortfallinArgentineshipmentsraisesforecastsoybeanmealexportsby250,000shorttonsthismonthto13.45million.Ahighercrushismorethanoffsetbyadeclineforsoybeanexports(by50millionbushelsto1.775billion).Demandrevisionsboostthe2019/20season-endingstocksforecast
5、by55millionbushelsto480million.Figure1OutstandingU.S.exportsoybeansaleslacksignsofprevioussummerrevivalsMillionmetrictons252016/172017/182018/19202019/20151050Sep5Oct10Nov14Dec19Jan23Feb27Apr2May7Jun11Jul16Aug20Source:USDA,ForeignAgriculturalService,ExportSales.ApprovedbyUSDA
6、’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardDomesticOutlookDomesticSoybeanCrushisSupportedbyStrongerMealUseAnenhancedU.S.marketforsoybeancrushingstemsfromstrengtheningdemandforsoybeanmeal.Thismonth,USDAboostsitsforecastofthe2019/20soybeancrushby20millionbushelstoarecord2.125billion.Althou
7、ghrecentvaluesforsoybeanoilhavefallenprecipitously,crushingmarginshaveremainedsteady.AsimultaneousplungeintheMarchaveragesoybeancashpricepaidbycentralIllinoisprocessors(to$8.11perbushelfrom$8.96inFebruary)hassustainedtheprofitabilityofcrushing.Theprocessingmarginisalsobolster
8、edbyarecoveryforthemonthlysoybeanmealaverageprice,whichralliedinMarchtonearly$312pershorttonfrom$295inFebruary.Supportforthedomesticuseofsoybeanmealderivesfromrobustyear-to-yeargainsinlivestockproduction,especiallyforhogs.Anotherfactorcontributingtohighersoybeanmealdemandisac
9、ontractionofproteinsubstitutes.Thatparticularlyappliestothecornbyproductfeedsproducedatethanolplants.Thus,domesticsoybeanmealdisappearancefor2019/20isforecast300,000shorttonshigherthismonthto37.1million.U.S.exportsofsoybeanmealin2019/20arebeingbuoyed,aswell,byacurrentshortfal
10、linArgentineshipments.Thissupplydeficitwastemperedbyuncommonlystrong
