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1、WheatOutlookWHS-20A
2、January14,2020NextreleaseisFebruary13,2020WheatOutlookInthisreport:-DomesticOutlook-InternationalOutlookJenniferK.BondU.S.AllWheatStocksTightenonRisingDomesticUse;ExportsHoldSteadyThelatestUSDA,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)GrainStocksreportindicatesseco
3、ndquarterallwheatendingstockstotaled1,834millionbushelswithimpliedSeptember-Novemberdisapperanceof512millionbushels,35percentabovethesameperiodin2018/19(fig.1).Surginguseinthesecondquarterisattributedtostrongerexportsyear-to-yearandhigher-than-expectedfeedandresidualuse.Allwheatexportsw
4、ereraisedlastmonthtothecurrent975-million-bushelestimateontheobservedpaceofsalesandbrightenedmarketingopportunities.U.S.exportprospectsremainmostlyfavorableondevelopmentsintraderelations,thesurgingpaceofdurumexports,andcutsinproductionandexportsforRussiaandAustralia.However,onimprovingp
5、ricecompetitiveness,wheatexportsfortheEuropeanUnionareforecasttorisetwomilliontonsandareexpectedtoinhibitfurtherexpansionofU.S.wheatsalesabroad.Figure1Strongsecondquarter(Q2)useaidsin2019/20carryoutreductionMillionbushels3,00030%2,50025%2,00020%1,50015%1,00010%5005%00%2009/102010/112011
6、/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20Sources:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,WorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimatesandERScalculations.DomesticOutlookDomesticChangesataGlance:•ThelatestUSDA,NASSGrainStocksreportindicateshigher-than-expecteddisappearancethrough
7、thefirsthalfofthemarketingyear,asreflectedinthenewly-issuedDecember1stocksestimate.oAt1,834millionbushels,secondquarterendingstocksareabout50millionbushelslowerthanpreviouslyforecast.•Feedandresidualuseisincreased10millionbushelsonstronger-than-expectedSeptember-Novemberdisappearance.•A
8、llwheatendingstocksfor2019/20arelowered9millionbushelsonhighernetuse.•USDA,NASSreportswinterwheatseedingsforthe2020/21marketingyearareexpectedtototal30.8millionacres,down1percentfrom2019(fig.2).oTheonlylowertotalwinterwheatplantedareaonrecordwasin1909.•Hardredwinterwheatplantin
