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1、EconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportWHS-20d
3、April13,2020NextreleaseisMay14,2020WheatOutlookInthisreport:-DomesticOutlook-InternationalOutlookJenniferK.Bond,CoordinatorGlobalTradeCutonNewRestrictionsforRussiaandReducedExportsforU.S.OnApril2,2020,the
4、GovernmentoftheRussianFederationimposeda7-million-metrictonquotaontotalexportsofwheatandothergrainsuntilJune30,2020.ThisbindingrestrictioncombineswithstrengtheningBlackSeapricestoreducethe2019/20wheatexportforecastforRussiaby1.5milliontonsto33.5million(fig.1).S
5、urgingdomesticwheatpricesandarelativelystrongdollarhavealsocreatedheadwindsforU.S.exports,lowered0.4milliontonsto27.1million.TheEuropeanUnion(EU)andAustraliaaretheonlymajorwheatexporterswhoseexportsareraisedmonth-to-month.OnreducedcompetitionfromRussiaandcontin
6、uedcompetitiveprices,EUwheatexportsareraised1.5milliontonsto33.5million.Australia’sexportsareincreased0.3milliontonsto8.5milliononastrongerthanexpectedexportpace.Figure1U.S.wheatpricesremainabovemostkeyexporters,EuropeanUnionwheatpricenearlowest(Dollars/metrict
7、on)260250240230220210200190BlackSeaMillingUSHRW(11.5%),Gulf180EU(France)Grade1,Rouen170160Note:EUwheatisGrade1,Rouen;USHRWisGulfhardredwinterwheat(11.5%protein).BlackSeawheatismillingquality.Source:InternationalGrainsCouncil.ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOut
8、lookBoardDomesticOutlookDomesticChangesataGlance:•U.S.exportsarelowered15millionbushelsto985millionontherecentlyslowingpaceofU.S.internationalsalesandincreasinglycompetitivepricesfortheEuropeanUnionandotherkeyexportingnations.•U.S.all-wheatfeedandresidualuseist
9、rimmed15millionbushelsonlower-than-expectedsecondandthirdquarterdisappearance,anincreasingwheat-to-cornpriceratio,andincreasedavailabilityofcornbecauseofgreatlyreducedethanoldemand.•Resultingendingstocksareincreased30millionbushelsto970milliononreduceduse.•Desp
10、itealowerstocks-to-useratio,theseasonaveragefarmpriceisraised5centsto$4.60perbushel.oRecently,cashandfuturespricesforwheat—theprincipalfoodgraingrownintheU.S—havesurged,ther
