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1、WorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimatesISSN:1554-9089OfficeoftheAgriculturalMarketingServiceEconomicResearchServiceChiefEconomistFarmServiceAgencyForeignAgriculturalServiceWASDE-599ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardApril9,2020WHEAT:Theoutlookfor2
2、019/20U.S.wheatisforlowerexports,reduceddomesticuse,andincreasedendingstocks.TheNASSGrainStocksreport,issuedMarch31,impliedlessfeedandresidualdisappearanceforboththesecondandthirdquartersthanpreviouslyestimated.Total2019/20feedandresidualuseistrimmed15mill
3、ionbushelsto135million.Wheatexportsarealsocut15millionbushelsto985milliononaslowingpaceandpricesthathavebecomeuncompetitiveinmanyinternationalimportmarkets.Byclass,HardRedWinterandSoftRedWinterarereduced10millionand5millionbushels,respectively.Thechangesre
4、sultina30millionbushelincreaseinestimatedallwheatendingstocksto970million.Despitethelargerendingstocks,theprojectedseason-averagefarmpriceisraised$0.05perbushelto$4.60onupdatedNASSdataaswellassurgingnearbycashandfuturesprices,partiallyresultingfromthegloba
5、lCOVID-19pandemic.The2019/20globaloutlookisforslightlyhighersupplies,butreducedtradeandutilization.Globalproductionisloweredfractionallywithseveralsmallmostlyoffsettingchanges.Globalexportsarelowered0.9milliontons,ledbya1.5-million-tonreductionforRussia,wh
6、ichwasdirectlyoffsetbyanequivalentincreasefortheEU.TheRussiachangeisbasedprimarilyonnewlyimposedgovernmentexportrestrictions.TheEUisraisedonlesscompetitionfromRussiaaswellasexpectationsofacontinuedstrongpaceofexports.Severalsmallerexportreductionsaremade;n
7、otablya0.4-million-tonreductionfortheUnitedStatesanda0.3-million-tonreductionforPakistan.Globalimportsarereduced0.3milliontonseachforBrazil,Japan,andUzbekistan;a0.3-million-tonincreaseforMoroccoispartiallyoffsetting.Aggregateworldconsumptionislowered5.1mil
8、liontonsfollowingupdatestoseveralcountries.Thelargestreductionsare2.0milliontonsforChina,1.9millionforIndia,and1.0millionfortheEU.Withsupplieshigherandusedown,projected2019/20globalendingstocksareraised5.6mil