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1、,EconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportRCS-20DApril13,2020NextreleaseisMay14,2020RiceOutlookInthisreport:NathanChilds-DomesticOutlook-InternationalOutlookRiceOutlookmonthlytables,inexcelformat,canbefoundontheRiceOutlookreportpageonUSDA’sEcono
3、micResearchServicewebsite.U.S.2020/21RicePlantingsIndicatedat2.85MillionAcresTheonlyrevisionthismonthtotheU.S.2019/20ricebalancesheetwasa0.5-millioncwtreductioninthelong-grainimportforecastto25.5millioncwt,stillthehighestonrecord.Thesmallerimportforecas
4、tloweredthelong-grainendingstocksforecast3.5percentto13.7millioncwt,thelowestsince2003/04.Thelong-grainseason-averagefarmprice(SAFP)wasraised20centsto$12.20percwt.TheCalifornia2019/20SAFPwasalsoraised$20cents,nowforecastat$18.20percwt.Intheglobalricemar
5、ket,forecastsfor2019/20production,consumption,trade,andendingstockswereallloweredthismonth,withSoutheastAsiaaccountingformostoftheproductionandexportdeclines.ExportpricequotesfromThailandandtheUnitedStatescontinuetoincrease,withquotesthehighestforbothin
6、7years.NeitherVietnamnorIndiaarecurrentlyquotingpricesforexports.U.S.long-grainendingstocksin2019/20areprojectedtobethelowestsince2003/04Millioncwt(rough-ricebasis)Percent5025EndingStocksStocks-to-UseRaio402030152010105002000/0105/0610/1115/1619/20Marke
7、tyearCwt=Hundredweight.2019/20areforecasts.Sources:2000/01-2016/17,RiceYearbookDataset,USDA,EconomicResearchService2017/18-2019/20,USDA,WorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.1RCS-20D,April13,2020USDA,EconomicResearchSer
8、viceApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.DomesticOutlookU.S.RicePlantingsIndicatedtoRise12Percentin2020/21InMarch,U.S.ricegrowersindicatedtheywouldexpandriceplantings12percentin2020/21to2.85millionacres.Despitetheintendedincrease,plantingswouldsti
9、llbe3percentbelow2018/19plantings.Long-grainaccountsforalmostallofthe2020/21intendedareaexpansion.At2.1millionacres,U.S.long-grainplantingsareindicatedtobeup18percentfromayearearlier,withtheexpansionprimarilyduetorisingU.S.prices
