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1、EconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportSSS-M-379
3、March16,2020NextreleaseisApril15,2020SugarandSweetenersOutlookMichaelMcConnell,coordinatorDavidOlson,contributorU.S.SugarSuppliesandEndingStocksTightenWithReducedMexicoProductionForecastsIntheMarchWorldAgriculturalSu
4、pplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE),Mexicosugarproductionfor2019/20isreducedsubstantiallyduetocontinuedpooryieldsandrecoveryratesasitpassesthehalfwaymarkintheharvestseason.Withlessproduction,Mexico’sexportsarelowered,aswell—particularlyexportstotheUnitedStates.U.S.sugarsuppliesfor
5、2019/20arealsoreduced,aslessbeetsugarproductionandlowerimportsfromMexicoareonlyslightlyoffsetbyhigherhigh-tiertariffimports.ProjectionsforU.S.domesticdeliveriesandexportsareunchanged,resultinginsubstantiallylowerendingstocksandaverytightmarket,byhistoricalstandards.U.S.sugar
6、supply,use,andendingstocks,2006/07to2019/201,000STRV16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000(est.)(proj.)2006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20EndingstocksTotalsupplyTotaluseSource:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlook
7、Board.ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardMexicoOutlookLowYieldsandRecoveryRatesLowerMexicoProductionForecastsUnfavorableweatherconditionshavecontinuedtoimpactMexico’ssugarcanesector,reducingtheoutlookforsugarproductionfromthe2019/20crop.Droughtconditionsthroughthes
8、ummerandfallof2019haveresultedinloweryields.Additionally,rainthroughoutthepeakharvestseasonhasresultedinaslowpaceofharvestingthecropandhasnegativelyimpactedrecoveryrates.TheUSDAprojectsMexicosugarproductionat5.200millionmetrictons,actualvalue(MT)intheMarchWorldAgriculturalSu
9、pplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE),a472,000-MTdecreasefromthepreviousmonth.TheprojectionisbasedonMexico’sharvestingabout780,000hectares,whichwouldbelowerthanthepreviousyear’srecordtotalbutinlinewithrecenthistoricalaverages.TheMexicosugarcanecropisoftenstronglyinfluencedbyhowthela
10、tterportionoftheharvestseasonperforms.IfdryweatherconditionspersistthroughM
