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1、EconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportFDS-20a
3、January14,2020Nextrelease:February13,2020FeedOutlookInthisreport:-DomesticOutlook-InternationalOutlookTomCapehartOlgaLiefertDavidOlsonSeveralChangestoCurrentandPastYear’sBalanceSheetsTherewereseveralsignificantchangestoboththe2018
4、/19and2019/20balancesheetsthismonth,althoughtheendresultamodestforecastdeclineinU.S.cornendingstocksfor2019/20.Revisionsto2018/19cornstocksresultina106-million-busheljumpinstocksavailablefor2019/20supply,althoughstronger-than-expecteddomesticdemandduringtheSeptember-to-Novemberquartermo
5、rethanoffsetthelargersupplies.Totalusefor2019/20isprojected155millionbushelshigherwhile2018/19isdown186million.CorntradefortheOctober-Septemberinternationaltradeyear(TY)isvirtuallyunchanged,althoughwithsignificantshiftsformajorexporters.Twomajorforeigncornexporters—BrazilandUkraine—seet
6、heircornexportprojectionsgrow,whileU.S.cornexportsfor2019/20arecut4percentthismonth.IncreasedcompetitionlimitsU.S.exports,despiteexpectedrecordglobalcorntrade.Globaltradeinsorghumandbarleyareprojectedhigher.Figure1Cornsupplyanduse:percentchangefromlastmonth'sforecast(2019/20)Beginningst
7、ocksProductionImportsSupply,totalFS&I*EthanolforfuelDomestic,totalExportsUse,totalEndingstocks-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0PercentChangeSource:EconomicResearchServiceFeedGrainDatabase,U.S.Dept.ofAgricutlure.ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardDomesticOutlookProductionRevisedForBoth2
8、018/19and2019/20Projected2019/20cornproductionisraised31millionbushelsthismonthto13,692millionaslowerharvestedacreageisoffsetbya1-bushelperacreincreaseinyieldto168bushelsperacre,onthefarmer-reportedsurveyconductedbytheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)duringDecember,releasedint
9、heNASSCropProductionreport.Figure2U.S.cornharvestedareaandyieldMillionacresBu/acre10020090Yield(rightaxis)180801607014060120501004080Harvestedarea(leftaxis)3060204010200088/8991/9294/9597/9800/0103/0406/0709/1012/1315/1618/19Sources:USDA,EconomicResearchServicewithdatafromNatio
