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1、Completed20Dec201703:23AMESTDisseminated20Dec201703:23AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch20December2017LargeCapBanks2018Outlook:TaxCuts,RateHikes,CapitalReturnKeyDrivers;RegulatoryReformsToComeWeexpect2018forbankstobemarkedbybenefitfromtaxcuts,initiationofBanks—Large-Capsomereg
2、ulatoryreforms,andfurtherratehikes.Asaresult,weexpect2018EPSACVivekJunejagrowthtobedrivenbysharebuybacks,netinterestincomegrowth,andcontrolled(1-212)622-6465expensegrowthdrivingpositiveoperatingleverage,pluslikelytaxcuts.Creditvivek.juneja@jpmorgan.comqualitygenerallyremain
3、sgoodwithseasoninginafewareasfromlowlevelsandBloombergJPMAJUNEJAacoupleofsegmentsunderwater.Keyweaknessesin2017havebeenloangrowthJonathanLSummittandmarketsvolatilityandvolumes–it’sunclearwhenthesewillpickup.(1-212)622-6341Depositscontinuetogrowalbeitataslowerpace,anddep
4、ositmixisstartingtojonathan.l.summitt@jpmorgan.comshift.TechnologyshouldremainakeyfocusascompetitionfromwithinandJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCoutsidetheindustrywilldrivesignificantchanges–keychallengeisprioritizingnumerousinvestments.Weexpectthewindfallfromlowertaxratestotemperba
5、nkconsolidationnearterm,butmediumterm,theimpactoftechnologyandcompetitivepressureislikelytosparkacquisitions–weseeUSBancorpandBB&Taslikelyacquirers,postBSA-AMLexit,whichisexpectedin2018.Bankstockshavedonewellin4Q17duetoexpectationsforreducedtaxratesandadditionalratehikes.I
6、naddition,banksshouldbenefitin2018and2019Seeournote,fromprogressofregulatoryreforms.AdjustingP/EmultiplesforlowertaxratesTaxReform:LargePotentialimpliesthatMoneyCentersandRegionalsaretradingclosertothehighendofBenefitLedByRateCut;theirhistoricalrange.Ifweassumethattwo-third
7、sofpossibletaxreductionAMT/InvmtCreditUncertainty;flowstothebottomline(implyingone-thirdisinvestedorcompetedaway),ImpactOfCompetition?,MoneyCenterstradeatabout12.2x2018EEPSonavgvshistoricalrangeofDatedDec14,20179.9x–12.6xduringrecoveryperiodsandRegionalsat13.6xversusarangeo
8、f11.3x–13.8x.Ifweassumeentirebenefitfromtaxcutsflowstothebottomline,bankstocksarei
