美国大型银行业:资本回报应该持续.docx

美国大型银行业:资本回报应该持续.docx

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时间:2020-04-07

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1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanksSCBFinalized,CCARInstructionsOut:CapitalReturnShouldPersistAftertheclose,theFedapprovedaruletosimplifyitscapitalrulesforlargebanksandreleasedtheannualCCARinstructionsfor2020,adayearlierthanwehadanticipated.ForCCAR2020,capitalpla

2、nsshouldbesubmittedtotheFednolaterthanApril6.ResultsareslatedtobereleasedbyJune30.INDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Large-CapBanksJasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580EquityResearch5March2020Asexpected,forCCAR2020theFed,forthefirsttime

3、,willintegratethe"stresscapitalbuffer",orSCB.TheruleisbroadlysimilartoitsApril2018proposal.TheSCBrequirementisthedifferencebetweenthebanksstartingandminimumprojectedCET1capitalratiosundertheseverelyadversescenariointhesupervisorystresstestplusfourqua

4、rtersofplanneddividendsasapercentageofRWA.Inaddition,bankscanmaintainaconstantlevelofassets.TheG-SIBsurchargeandCCyBareincludedforthebiggestbanks.TheSCBrequirementcouldbenolessthan2.5%ofRWA.UsingDFAST2019(thoughactualresultwillbebasedonDFAST2020),web

5、elievethemajorityofourcoveragewouldbeatthe2.5%floor.MS,GS,COF,CandJPMappeartobeabove.Ofnote,theSCBrequirementbecomeseffectiveonOct1andremainsineffectuntilSept30ofthefollowingyear.ToprovideatransitionbetweentheCCAR2019cycle(whichendsin2Q20)andthefirst

6、SCBrequirement(whichstartsin4Q20),for3Q20,abankwillbeauthorizedtomakecapitaldistributionsthatdonotexceedthefour-quarteraverageofcapitaldistributionsforwhichtheFedindicateditsnon-objectioninthepreviouscapitalplancycle.Abankmayseekpriorapprovaltomakead

7、ditionalcapitaldistributionsbeyondthisfour-quarteraverageamount.TheFedaddedmorecapitalflexibility.Asforeshadowed,theruledoesnotincludeastressleveragebufferrequirement,asoriginallyproposed.Bankswillstillcontinuetobesubjecttoongoing,non-stressleverager

8、atiorequirements(tier1leverageandSLR).TheFedremovedthe30%dividendpayoutratiocurrentlyappliedasacriterionforheightenedsupervisoryscrutinyofabank’scapitalplan.Italsogenerallyremovedtherequirementforbankstorequestpriorapprovalforincrementalcapitaldistri

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