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1、LargeCapBanks5April2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchLargeCapBanksResearchAnalystsSusanRothKatzke2123251237susan.katzke@credit-suisse.comAdamKrasner,CFA2123257116adam.krasner@credit-suisse.comGerardPadilla2123253579gerard.padilla@credit-suisse.com1Q19Earni
2、ngsPreviewEARNINGSThisIsLateCycle–ALittleLessofJustAboutEverythingTheCSLargeCapBankgroupwillbeginreportingfirstquarterearningsonFridaymorning,April12,withJPMorgan,WellsFargoandPNCweighinginfirst.Whattoexpect…Withlessmacroandmarketsupport,slowerrevenuegrowthistobe
3、expected;operatingleverage,lowcreditcostsandsharerepurchasearedrivingEPSgrowth.Allin,weforecast~2%yr/yrEPSgrowthwitha~14%averageROTE.Moreimportantistheforwardlook…EarningsgrowthwillremaincloselytiedtoGDPgrowth,markethealthandcompetitiveposition;sharepriceperforma
4、ncewilltietovaluation(howmuchriskisdiscounted)andinvestorconfidenceinthecyclicalpath.■LargeCapBanks'1Q19EPSexpectedtoincrease2%year/yearsupportedbya4%sharecountreduction.Tobesure,theaveragesaredraggeddownbythosebanksmorereliantonthemarkets.Ouruniversalbanksareexp
5、ectedtoreportEPS+3%yr/yrand+5%qtr/qtr;withlessofamarket-relatedrevenueimpact,oursuper-regionalbanksareexpectedtoputup+6%yr/yrand-5%qtr/qtrEPSgrowth;thetrustbanksareexpectedtogenerate-12%yr/yrand-10%qtr/qtrEPScomparisons.■Flattishrevenuegrowth,varieddegreesofeffic
6、iencygains/operatingleverage,lowcreditcostsandcapitalreturnsaredrivingcomparisons.Underpinningourflattishrevenuegrowthforecast(year/yearandquarter/quarter):(i)NIMsflattishto4Q18with1%loangrowth,butthetypicaldaycountreductionin1QdrivingamodestsequentialNIIdecline,
7、(ii)challengingcapitalmarketsconditions:tradingdown~10%yr/yr;investmentbankingdown16%yr/yrindustrywide,(iii)mortgagebankingchallenged,seasonallyandotherwise.WeexpecttheLargeCapBanks'efficiencyratiostoaverageoutat~60%(ex.trustbanks)ascomparedto60.9%in1Q18and59.1%i
8、n4Q18,withconsiderablevariancebankbybank.Withrespecttocredit...Our1Q19estimatesembed2%sequentially(20%year/year)highercreditcosts,reflectiveofrelativelystablen
