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1、U.S.Mid-andSmall-CapBanks1Q19EarningsPreviewDowngradingCMA,ZION,KEY,UpgradingSBNYasWeReduceAssetSensitivity;DigitalBanksDeepDiveNorthAmericaEquityResearch04April2019We’vebeenbearishonbankstockssincewechangedoursectorviewinearlyOctober2018andrecommendedinvestorsreduceexposuretoregionalbanks.Eventh
2、oughbankstocksaretechnicallynowmuchcheaper,particularlyascomparedtotheS&P500,ourbearishcallonthesectorremainsfullyintact.Infact,fortheremainderof2019,welookformanyofthetailwindsthathelpedbottomlinegrowthforbanksoverthepastseveralyearstonowmorefullystarttransitioningintoheadwinds.Tothisend,whileour
3、priorcallfavoredasset-sensitivebanks,intheaftermathof(1)averydovishoutlookbeingprovidedatthemostrecentFOMCmeetingand(2)signsofafasterthanexpectedslowdowninEurope,itappearstousthat,directionallyspeaking,thenextmovefromtheFedismorelikelyacutthanahike(withtheforwardcurvenowimplyingtworatecutsbyYE20).
4、GiventhattheoutlookforliabilitysensitivebanksshouldlikelyimproveovertimewhileassetsensitivebanksarelikelytoseeNIMtailwindsturningintoNIMheadwinds,wewouldsuggestrepositioningportfoliosawayfromassetsensitivebankswhilesimultaneouslyincreasingexposuretoliabilitysensitivebanks.Withthatsaid,wecontinueto
5、recommendthatinvestorsfurthertrimoverallexposuretoregionalbanks.Webelievebankstocksarecurrentlytradingonanexpectationofcreditqualityremainingpristinein2019aswellas2020.Notonlydoweseelittlelikelihoodthatcreditqualityremainspristineovertheintermediateterm,unlikemanyofourpeersthatbelievebanksarebette
6、rpositionedforthenextcreditcycle,webelievethenextcreditcyclecouldactuallybemuchworsethanpriorcycles.·DowngradingCMA,ZIONandKEY;UpgradingSBNYtoOverweight.Givenourrecommendationtotrimassetsensitivity,wearedowngradingComericaandZionsfromOWtoNeutral.Intermsofincreasingexposuretoliabilitysensitivebanks
7、,weareupgradingSignaturetoOW.Withthatsaid,withouroverallcallremainingtoreduceexposuretoregionalbanks,wearedowngradingKEYfromOWtoNeutral.·ThisCreditCycleCouldBeWorsethanPriorCycles.Althoughmanybelievethatbanksareb
