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1、1April2019GlobalResearchUSAutos–Q1PreviewEquitiesWhoSettheBarLowEnough?AmericasAutomobilesColinLangan,CFAQ1appearstobecominginatthelowendofexpectationsAnalystSimilartowhatwe'veseenoverthepastseveralquarters,thesetupforQ1appearstocolin.langan@ubs.combechallengingforautos.LVpro
2、ductionisforecasttobe220bpsworsethanexpected+1-212-7139949previously(seeFigure9),ledbyEurope(-560bps)andChina(-310bps),andfxGeneVladimirov,CFAheadwinds(primarilyEuro).InEurope,webelievethatWLTPimpactslastyearwereAssociateAnalystoverstatedandtherecoveryinunderlyingtrendsisnotf
3、ullycomingthroughinQ1.Ingene.vladimirov@ubs.comChina,mostsupplierswereforecastingalow-teensdecline(seeourQ4Review),actual+1-212-713-1091trendsappeartobecominginworse(UBSest.-17%).Ontheotherhand,heavytruck,notablyinNAmerica,appearstobecominginbetterthanexpected,withaFY19produc
4、tionoutlookimplying3%growth,afterhittingpeakvaluesinFY18.Withthisbackdropinmind,wearerevisingdownourQ1EPSestimates~7%onaverage.WhoisthebestandworstpositionedinQ1?WegenerallyviewthecompaniesthatsetthebarlowenoughasbeatinginQ1aswellascompanieswithlowChina/EuropeexposureandhighN
5、Americatruckingexposure.ThispointstoDAN,MTOR,andTEN(heavytruck)andLEAaswellasBWA(likelyin-linewithguide)asbestpositionedforexpectations.WearebelowconsensusinQ1onVC>X(Chinaexposure).WeexpectsmallbeatsforbothFordandGM.FordwillbeimpactedbyChinainventorycuts,andGMwillbeimpacted
6、byNASUVmixheadwinds.Isthereabuyingopportunityhere?Autostocksaredown~11%overthelastmonthasChina&globaltradeconcernscontinuetopressureautostocks.However,wearemaintainingourFYChinaforecastasmuchoftheweakQ1productionwastheresultofaggressiveinventorycorrections.Also,mostautosuppli
7、ershaveguidedtoH2improvement,withmanyanticipatingalmostnoimprovementinmacroandinsteadanticipatinglaunches&internalexecutiondrivingimprovingperformance.Whileweanticipatevolatilityintheshort-term,webelievethespacewillreboundastheyearprogresses.Valuation:MaintainBuyratingsonF,GM
8、,DAN,LEA,BWA,TEN&ADNTSeeourupdatedEPSinFigure1.Figure1:Q12019&FY2019
