2019年Q1北美财险盈利预览

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1、Property&CasualtyInsurance1Q19EarningsPreview:Steady1QfortheP&CInsuranceIndustryWeexpecttheP&Cinsuranceindustrytoreportsolid1Qresults,followinganotheryearofhistoriccatastropheactivityduringthepreviouscalendaryear’s3Qand4Q.Despiteaquarterthatexperiencednews

2、worthylossactivitysuchaswidespreadfloodingthathasimpactedtheU.S.Midwest,webelieveourcoveragegroupiswellpositionedtodeliverstrongearnings.Underwritinglossesshouldbetolerableandtheindustrycontinuestobenefitfromgradualrateincreasesascarriershaveleveragedthepa

3、sttwoyearsofhistoriclargelossactivitytopushforrateadequacy.Favorableprioryearreservedevelopmentshouldcontinuealthoughatamoderatingpace.Inaddition,weexpectyear-over-yeargrowthinnetinvestmentincometoprovideaslightboosttocarriers'returns.Webelievethatpersonal

4、linescarrierssuchasALLandPGRwilloutpacetheircommercialpeerswhilethebrokersshouldcontinuetoachievesolidorganicgrowth.AstheoutlookforfurtherFedratehikesdiminishes,webelievethatthesector’sdefensivecharacteristicscouldmakeitincreasinglyattractivetoinvestorsrel

5、ativetoitsmoreratesensitivefinancialpeers.·PersonalLinesExpectedtoContinueEarningSolidReturns.WeexpectthatpersonallinescarrierssuchasALLandPGRshouldcontinuetogeneratebest-in-classreturns.Whilepriceincreasesinpersonalautoshouldcontinuetomoderatefromlevelsse

6、enoverthepasttwoyears,weexpectratestocontinueoutpacinglosscostinflation.Additionally,aftertwoconsecutiveyearsofactivehurricaneactivityintheGulfCoastandSoutheastU.S.combinedwithCaliforniawildfirelosses,weexpectpersonalcarrierstopushrateincreasesthroughoutth

7、eirhomeowners'portfolio.·CommercialCarrierstoBenefitfromManageableCatActivityandGraduallyImprovingPricing.Weexpect1Qnaturalcatastrophelossestobemanageableforourcommercialcarriers.Inaddition,returnsshouldbenefitfromimprovingindustrypricingascarrierspushforr

8、ateadequacythroughouttheirportfolio.WeexpectcarriersfocusedonEquityRatingsandPriceTargetsNorthAmericaEquityResearch04April2019Property&CasualtyInsuranceKeithCorneliusAC(1-212)622-9517keith.cornelius@jpmorgan