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1、ABGlobalResearch14April2020EquitiesP&CInsuranceEarningsPreviewInsurance,Property&CasualtyNorthAmerica1Q20:FocusonCovid-19andmacroexposure1Q20amixedbagforP&C;PLandbrokersoutperform,CLunderperformsTheFactSetP&CIndexwas-22.4%in1Q20,outperformingotherfinancials(S&PFinancials-32.2%)andaboutinlinewiththe
2、market(S&P500-20.0%).Thatsaid,withinP&Ctherewassignificantperformancebifurcationbetweenpersonallines(-7%)andcommerciallines(-32%),withtheformerperceivedtobenefitfromreducedmilesdrivenasaresultofremoteworkingmandates,andthelatterimpactedbycontinueduncertaintyregardingpotentialcoverageforCOVID-19relat
3、edclaims.TheFactSetBrokersindexoutperformed(-18%)giventhelimitedbalancesheetrisk,bothintermsofinsurancepolicyliabilityandinvestmentportfoliocreditexposure.Estimateslargelyintact;ExpectcallfocusonCOVID-19implicationsforFY20Neartermfundamentalsappearmostpositiveforpersonalautowriters,whichshouldbenefi
4、tfromreducedautoaccidentfrequency,whichshouldbemorethanrebatesbeinggiven.Onthecommercialside,weexpectsomenear-termclaimsfrequencybenefitsinlineslikeworkerscomp,commercialautoandgeneralliabilitywithtoplinepressureinfuturequartersfromexposureadjustmentinpremiums.WithrespecttoCovid-19insuredlossexposur
5、e,thebiggestuncertaintyremainsbusinessinterruption("BI")coverage,whichappearslessofanissueinNorthAmericagivenvirusexclusionsandsub-limitswhencoverageisafforded.OutsideofBIweexpectlossesinvariousspecialtyclassesliketradecredit,travelinsuranceandeventcancellationwhichmaymanifestin1Q20resultsAdjustment
6、sfortheqtrreflectlightcats,fewermilesdriven,andmarketselloffWeraised1Q20EPSestimatesfor8companiesandloweredfor7companies.Weareaboveconsensuson9companiesandbelowon6.Wegenerallyexpectlightdomesticprimaryinsurercatlosses,withtheTNtornadostheonly$1b+U.S.eventinthequarterandweassumebetterautoresultsinour
7、estimates.NIIrevisionsdependoncompanyreporting,withsomereflectingalternativeNIIonaonemonthoroneqtrlagUpgradingMMCtoBuy,WLTWandWRBgotoNeutralPriceRatingPriceTarget1Q2020EEPS2020EEPS2021EEPSTicker4/13/2
