美国大型银行业：受到多方面影 响.docx

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1、COREU.S.Large-CapBanksPotentialCOVID-19EPSMath2.0:GettingHitFromManySidesThebanklandscapeischangingveryrapidly.Twoweeksago(althoughitfeelslikealotlonger)wepublishedapiecetitled“PotentialCOVID-19EPSMath:OperatingfromaPositionofStrength”(3/3/20).Since,therehavebeensev

2、eralmaterialchanges.Theseinclude:a)a50bps‘emergency’Fedcuttwoweeksagoandanother100bpsreductionINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Large-CapBanksPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Large-CapBanksJasonM.Goldberg,CFA+12125268580EquityResearch17March2020Sundaynight,bringingthelowerboundto0%;b)another

3、~20bpsdeclineinthe10-yeartreasuryyieldbringingtheQTDdeclinetoover100bps;c)a30%dropinthepriceofoilasOPEC+talksfellapart;d)another15%dropintheS&P500;e)thelargestbankstemporarilysuspendingsharerepurchase;andf)thecountofconfirmedCOVID-19casesincreasingfromroughly90,300,

4、includingover100intheU.S.,toover175,000globally(upmorethan90%)withmorethan3,800intheU.S.WhiletheultimateimpactofCOVID-19isdifficulttoassessatthisjuncture,itisimportanttonotethatthebankingindustryentersthissituationfromapositionofstrength.Capital(TCEratio)standsatits

5、highestlevelsince1940,liquidity(loans/deposits)approximatesitsstrongestlevelsincetheearly1980s,creditquality(NPAratio)isatitshealthiestlevelsince2006,andprofitability(PPNR/assets)ismorethan30%aboveitshistoricalaverage.TheindustryhasconsistentlypassedFedstresstests,w

6、hichassumeaseverelyadversescenario.Furthermore,regulatorsareencouraginguseofthediscountwindow.Recentmonetaryandfiscalpolicyannouncementsshouldbesupportiveforthebankingindustry,withadditionalmeasureslikely.Todate,theFedhascutratestothezerolowerbound,increasedQE,lower

7、edthediscountwindowborrowingrate,saiditwillsupportbanksinusingtheircapital/liquiditybuffers,andeliminatedreserverequirements.Webelieveithasadditionallevers.Onthefiscalfront,theU.S.declaredanationalemergency(freedup$50bninaid),suspendedinterestpaymentsonfederalstuden

8、tloans,increasedSBAlending,andpromisedtobuy“largequantitiesofcrudeoil”forStrategicPetroleumReserve(SPR).Congressisworkingonadditionalaid,w