美国中型银行业：能源电话会议对中型银行的影 响

《美国中型银行业：能源电话会议对中型银行的影 响》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、ABGlobalResearch27November2019USMid-CapBanksFeelingStressed:EnergyConferenceCallImplicationsforMid-CapBanksEnergysectorconditionsunlikelytoimproveneartermOurenergysectorconferencecallincludedinputfrombothanenergysectorandacreditanalystwhichpointedtosimi

2、larimplications.One,fundamentalstressisacombinationofpricing,secularpressure,andexcesssupplythatmakeatraditionalturnaroundunlikely.Two,lowerfutureenergypricesmakesdimensioningthedownsidecasemorechallengingasthedeclineisdifferentthanotherpriorpurelycyclic

3、aldeclines.Three,thecapitalmarketsareeffectivelyshutformanycompanies.Thisheightenstheneedforalternativefunding,yettheseoptionsmaynotbefoundpriortoaliquidityevent.Spreadsofpubliclytradedenergydebtareclimbingandarealreadybacktolevelslastseenin2015/16(Figur

4、e1).Cautionflagsareflyingoverlenderswithafundamentalturnnotexpecteduntilsometimein2020.ThebankenergylendingclubrequiresaclosewatchAlthoughdifficulttodirectlycorrelatebetweenpubliccreditperformanceandbankspecificresults,weexpectabiasupwardforNPA’sandNCO’s

5、forbankswithenergyexposure.Fundamentalpressureswedescribeappeartobeseveralquarterstoayearfrompeaking.CurrentNPAlevelsareroughlyone-thirdthelevelof2015/16forenergyexposedbankswhileNCO’saremorevolatileandidiosyncratic.Withenergyexposureequivalentto6%oftota

6、lloans,wearemostconcernedwithTCBI.CMAat5%haslessconcentrationbutwith2-4%loangrowthhaslessabilitytowithstandahigherprovisionheadwind.EWBC(3.5%),FHN(2%)andHBAN(2%)containlowerenergyconcentrationsandhavebettergrowthprofiles.Figure1:FeelingStressed:Energyvs.

7、HighYieldCreditSpreadsNote;Thenumberintheparenthesisindicatedaboveisasof11/25/2019Source:UBSGlobalCreditStrategyBanksAmericasEquitiesBrockVandervlietAnalystbrock.vandervliet@ubs.com+1-212-7132382VilasAbrahamAnalystvilas.abraham@ubs.com+1-212-7133241www.

8、ubs.com/investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE23.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbea