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时间:2020-01-06
《美国中型银行业:能源电话会议对中型银行的影 响》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、ABGlobalResearch27November2019USMid-CapBanksFeelingStressed:EnergyConferenceCallImplicationsforMid-CapBanksEnergysectorconditionsunlikelytoimproveneartermOurenergysectorconferencecallincludedinputfrombothanenergysectorandacreditanalystwhichpointedtosimi
2、larimplications.One,fundamentalstressisacombinationofpricing,secularpressure,andexcesssupplythatmakeatraditionalturnaroundunlikely.Two,lowerfutureenergypricesmakesdimensioningthedownsidecasemorechallengingasthedeclineisdifferentthanotherpriorpurelycyclic
3、aldeclines.Three,thecapitalmarketsareeffectivelyshutformanycompanies.Thisheightenstheneedforalternativefunding,yettheseoptionsmaynotbefoundpriortoaliquidityevent.Spreadsofpubliclytradedenergydebtareclimbingandarealreadybacktolevelslastseenin2015/16(Figur
4、e1).Cautionflagsareflyingoverlenderswithafundamentalturnnotexpecteduntilsometimein2020.ThebankenergylendingclubrequiresaclosewatchAlthoughdifficulttodirectlycorrelatebetweenpubliccreditperformanceandbankspecificresults,weexpectabiasupwardforNPA’sandNCO’s
5、forbankswithenergyexposure.Fundamentalpressureswedescribeappeartobeseveralquarterstoayearfrompeaking.CurrentNPAlevelsareroughlyone-thirdthelevelof2015/16forenergyexposedbankswhileNCO’saremorevolatileandidiosyncratic.Withenergyexposureequivalentto6%oftota
6、lloans,wearemostconcernedwithTCBI.CMAat5%haslessconcentrationbutwith2-4%loangrowthhaslessabilitytowithstandahigherprovisionheadwind.EWBC(3.5%),FHN(2%)andHBAN(2%)containlowerenergyconcentrationsandhavebettergrowthprofiles.Figure1:FeelingStressed:Energyvs.
7、HighYieldCreditSpreadsNote;Thenumberintheparenthesisindicatedaboveisasof11/25/2019Source:UBSGlobalCreditStrategyBanksAmericasEquitiesBrockVandervlietAnalystbrock.vandervliet@ubs.com+1-212-7132382VilasAbrahamAnalystvilas.abraham@ubs.com+1-212-7133241www.
8、ubs.com/investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE23.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbea
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