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1、COREEquityResearch
2、InstantInsights15November2018MatthewJ.Keating,CFA+12125268572matthew.keating@barclays.comBCI,USCompleted:16-Nov-18,02:46GMTJamesKurek+12125267052james.r.kurek@barclays.comBCI,USReleased:16-Nov-18,02:46GMTCoreyStern+12125260941corey
3、.stern@barclays.comBCI,USBARCLAYSCLASSIFICATION:Restricted-ExternalU.S.Mid-CapBanksBankExaminer:Findingsfromthe3Q18FilingsConclusionWiththelastofourcoveredbanksfilingits3Q1810-Qearlierthisweek,wepresentourfindingsfromthefilingsbelow.Inourview,themost
4、significantrevelationscamefromthefollowingbanks:BKU:OnOctober31,2018,BKUreceivedconsentfromtheFDIC,pursuanttothetermsofitsSingleFamilyShared-LossAgreement,toexecuteaportfoliosaleofcertaincoveredloansandOREO.Theunpaidprincipalbalance(UPB)ofloansencomp
5、assedbythisconsenttotaled$263mnat3Q18anditintendstoselltheseloansin4Q18.Followingthisportfoliosale,BKUexpectsitsFDICindemnificationassetbalancetobeamortizedtozeroornearzeroin4Q18,asexpectationsoflosseseligibleforindemnificationwithrespecttotheretaine
6、dloanspriortoterminationoftheSingleFamilyShared-LossAgreementareinsignificant.BKUestimatesaccretionrelatedtocoveredloanstototal$114mnandamortizationoftheFDICindemnificationassettototal~$117mnin4Q18.Estimatedaccretionrelatedtotheretainedloanstoberecog
7、nizedafter4Q18,overtheexpectedlivesofthoseloans,is~$302mn.BPOP:ItexplainedhowtheOversightBoard’smostrecentRevisedCommonwealthFiscalPlan(asofOctober23,2018)projectsa16.1%contractioninrealGNPin2018,withoutaccountingfortheimpactofdisasterrelieffundingor
8、themeasuresandstructuralreformscontemplatedbytheplan(8.0%contractionwhenaccountingforthesefactors).Italsoprojectsthatdisasterreliefspendingcombinedwiththeestimatedeffectsoftheproposedfiscalmeasuresandstructuralreforms,willresultinvariableGNPgrowthfro
9、m2019through2022,followedbyGNPcontractionin2023asdisasterrelieffundingdropsoffconsiderably.PuertoRico’spopulationisestimatedtosteadilydeclineatanaveragerateof1.12%from2019through2023,reachinganapproximately1%annualdeclineinthelong-term.CFR:Itexplaine
