瑞信-美股-银行业-美国大型银行业2020年展望-2019.12.pdf

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1、WhatGoesUp,MustComeDown?U.S.LargeCapBanks2020OutlookDecember2019EquityResearchAmericasResearchAnalystsSusanRothKatzkeLargeCapBanksAnalyst212.325.1237susan.katzke@credit-suisse.comAdamKrasner,CFAGerardPadillaPeterHamiltonLargeCapBanksAssociateLargeCa

2、pBanksAssociateLargeCapBanksAssociate212.325.7116212.325.3579212.325.7125adam.krasner@credit-suisse.comgerard.padilla@credit-suisse.competer.hamilton@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFIC

3、ATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthi

4、sreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.LargeCapBanks:2020OutlookTableofContentsThesisandKeyThemesfor2020(pages3-4)ValuationPerspective(pages5-17)–SharePricePerformanceinanElectionYear(page8-9)–Ri

5、skvs.Reward:GaugingUpsideandDownside(page17)MacroConfidenceisCriticaltoOutperformance(page18-20)–BankingIndustryCyclicality(page22)–WhatGoesUp,MustComeDown?(pages23-26)–FearFactor:PerspectiveSettingwithaLookBacktopriorCyclicalTurns(pages27-34)Early

6、InningsintheGreatDivide(pages37-38)ScaleMatters,MarketFragmentationCreatesOpportunity,ConsolidationContinues–CatalystsforMarketShareConsolidation(page39)–TheChangedCompetitiveLandscapeinBanking(page40)–ScaleMatters;MarketFragmentationFuelsOrganicGro

7、wth(pages41-48)–ScaleMatters:UnitCostsandInvestmentCapacity(marketingandtechnology)(pages43-44)EarningsOutlook:2020/2021(page52)–Ourbasecaseforecastandearningssensitivity(pages54-55)–Netinterestrevenuedrivers(pages56-57)–Creditqualitymigrationandcon

8、centrationsofrisk(pages58-62)Coverage:Thesis,Catalysts,RisksandRecentBankResearch(pages63-67)RegulatoryDevelopments,CCARandCapitalManagement(pages68-75)SusanRothKatzke(212)325-1237,susan.katzke@credit-suisse.com2LargeCapBanks:2020OutlookOnethingwec