瑞信-美股-银行业-辞旧迎新：2018年q1良好开端

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1、1February2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchMultinationalBanksBankingontheMarketsResearchAnalystsMONTHLYSusanRothKatzke2123251237susan.katzke@credit-suisse.comOutwiththeOld,InwiththeNew…GettingAthenaXie2125383253StartedontheRightFoot,1Q18todateathena.xie

2、@credit-suisse.comOutwiththeoldandinwiththenew…howthetradingtonehasshiftedinsuchAdamKrasner2123257116ashortperiodoftime;themacrotailwindismostwelcomeatpresent.Tradingadam.krasner@credit-suisse.comvolumes,tradingvolatilityandassetpricesaregenerallyhigher;risk

3、appetiteisstable/healthyandwe'llfocusontheweektoweekpickupininvestmentbankingactivity,togethersuggestingahealthystarttotheyearinthecapitalmarkets.It'searly:Ourestimatesarereasonableifnotconservative.Themacroenvironment–and,withthat,riskappetiteandassetprices

4、upport–remainscriticaltoamoreconstructivecapitalmarketsrevenueforecast.■InvestmentBanking…investmentbankingfeesinaggregatearetrackingdown28%qtr/qtr(-34%yr/yr).Isthatindicativeofwherethisquarterwillgo?It'smuchtooearlytodrawthatconclusion;wenotethatactivityhas

5、pickedupweektoweek.M&Afeesareweighingdownthecomparisonsmostheavily—nosurprisegiventiming;bettertofocusonannouncedM&Avolume(+21%yr/r)andthegrowingbacklog(+3%atquarterend).Figure1:InvestmentBankingandTradingRevenueIndicators,1Q18-to-dateYr/YrQtr/QtrYr/YrQtr/Qt

6、rInvestmentBankingFees:Equitiesprices(eop):ECM:S&P50019%6%Equityunderwriting-17%-13%MSCIWorldindex21%6%IPOfees14%-33%FixedIncomeprices(eop):High-gradecorporates3%-2%DCM:Highyieldcorporates4%0%Debtunderwriting-13%3%Equitestradingvolume&volatility:Loansyndicat

7、ion-80%-79%U.S.cashequities4%11%Europeancashequities4%9%M&Aandadvisoryactivity:Equityfutures&options23%28%CompletedM&Avolumes-33%-25%VIX(avg)-7%6%AnnouncedM&Avolumes21%-23%FixedIncometradingvolume&volatility:M&Abacklog-19%3%U.S.cashfixedincome-2%-3%M&Afees-4

8、0%-36%Fixedincomederivatives7%17%Totalinvestmentbankingfees:-34%-28%MOVEindex(avg)-28%1%CVIXindex(avg)-27%-1%Source:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates.Dataupdatedasof1/31/18■Assetpricesup;riskapp