瑞信-美股-食品饮料行业-美国饮料业2018展望：持续的强驱动

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1、USBeveragesStrongMomentumtoContinuein20182018OutlookJanuary4,2018RESEARCHANALYSTSLaurentGrandet(212)538-7901laurent.grandet@credit-suisse.comClayCrumbliss,CFA(212)538-1076clay.crumbliss@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEG

2、ALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefa

3、ctorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.TableofContentsSummaryofOurThesispage2KeyThemespage6InvestmentDashboardpage15Stockscallspage19BeveragesthroughHOLTpage30Appendixpage351TheUSBeveragespacewillcontinuebuildingonthepositivemomentumin2018drivenbytoplineandEPSgrowthoutpacingthebroaderconsumerstaple

4、ssector.Wefavornon-alcoholicmanufactureswithinternationalexposureandstronggrowthpotential.Ourtoppicksfor2018areMonster(MNST),DrPepperSummaryofOurThesisSnapple(DPS),andCoca-Cola(KO).Photo:Shutterstock2017WasaStrongYearforBeverageStocks…USBeveragesrelativetootherConsumerStaplesBeveragesOutperforme

5、dOtherStaplesSectorsTheMostProfitableandFastestGrowingSectorBeverageStockPerformanceComparison120S&P119115119Beverage110111105HPC1009594IndexedPerformanceFood9085JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecBeverageFoodHPCS&PBeveragestocksoutperformedFoodandHPCin2017;performedin-linewithS&P500•Anumberofb

6、everagestockssawsignificantappreciation,includingMNST(+43%),BFb(+53%),andSTZ(+49%)•ThelargestcompaniesinourmarketcapweightedbeverageindexincludeKO(+11%)andPEP(+15%)•ConsumerStaplesroseonly10%incomparisonStockperformanceinourbeveragecoveragegroupwasdrivenbystrongfundamentals•Organicsalesincreased

7、3%•Operatingmarginsexpanded40bps(exKOrefranchising)•EPSgrew7%(exKOrefranchising)•Averagedividendyieldof2%Net,totalannualaverageshareholderreturnacrossourcoveragewas22%Source:HOLT,ThomsonReuters,CreditSuisseNote:returnsaremar