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1、23January2020EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesLifeInsuranceSector2020Outlook–LifeAin’tBadLifeInsurance
3、SectorForecastWefavorcapitallightandnicheindividuallifebusinesses,includingOutperform-ResearchAnalystsratedVOYA,GL,andAMP,whicharepoisedtosucceedinvariousmarke
4、tscenarios.Annuityaccumulators,suchasNeutral-ratedBHF,EQH,LNC,andPRU,facemoreriskinAndrewKligermanoperatingresultsoncapitalmarketssensitivity.VOYAshouldre-rateonimprovedEPS2123255069powerandreducedriskpostIndividualLifesale(note).AMPshouldre-rateonhigh-s.d.andrew.
5、kligerman@credit-suisse.comearningsgrowthincoreAdvice&WealthMgmt.and~$2.5Bre-deployablecapital(note).WilmaBurdisGLhashigh-s.d.EPSgrowthandconsistent14.0-14.5%ROEs,onwell-establishedand2123251594differentiateddistribution(note).WethinkUnderperform-ratedUNMhasa$(5.7
6、)Blong-wilma.burdis@credit-suisse.comtermcare(LTC)shortfall,andfacesrisingcompetitioninitsgroup&voluntarybusinesses.AlvinHuangThesectorappearstohaveupside,asittradesbelowhistoricalaveragesvs.S&P2123255064500.CSStrategyratesFinancialsOverweight,andestimatesan11%mar
7、ketgainin2020.alvin.huang@credit-suisse.comPOSITIVESin2020:(i)Solidbalancesheets,withlowbelowinvestmentgradeJackMattenexposureandvariableannuity(VA)writersBHF,EQH,LNC,andPRUboostedbymarket2123252322gains.But,thereissomeriskviahigherallocationstolessliquidandBBBsec
8、urities.(ii)francis.matten@credit-suisse.com“Noendinsight”forM&A.IFRS17couldmotivateint’linsurerstodivestU.S.assets—ATHandFGarepoisedtobuyannuityblocks.Capitallightgroup&voluntarybenefitsandretirementservicesproductsappearindemand,andincumbentswantscale.VOYAcouldb
9、eapotentialacquisitiontarget(pertheFinancialTimes),thoughwethinklikelynotuntil2021orlater.(iii)Salesgrowth.Perour4Q19survey(note),weexpectmid-s.d.salesgrowthinannuities;high-s.d.inindividuallife;low-d.d.for401(k)s;andpensionrisktransfersnear2018-19levels($25-30B).
10、NEGATIVESin2020:(i)Interestratesremainaheadwind,andnotjustonnetinvestmentincome,butalsoonproductpricingasnewmoneyyieldsfellto3.5-4.0%in2019from4.0-4.5%i
