美股保险行业-美国寿险业分析：PRU和VOYA表现最好

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1、ABGlobalResearch1August2018USLifeInsuranceFirstRead:LNC,MET,PRU&VOYA2Q18Results;PRUandVOYAtheBestoftheBunchLNC–ReportedModestMiss,ButCoreAppearsLargelyInLineLNCreported2Q18Op.EPSof$2.02vs.our$2.03andconsensus$2.10.Mgmthighlighted$0.08ofweakerthannormalvariableinvestmentincome(VII)vs.

2、ourestimatethatassumed$0.04weakerVII.Adjustingforthis,CoreEPSof$1.10wasmodestlyaheadofusandinlinew/consensus.Weexpectsharestolagversusthepeergroup.Callisat10amET(866-394-4575).MET–UnlikelySustainable,ButMoreThanEnoughtoMoveSharesHigherMETreported2Q18Op.EPSof$1.30vs.our$1.13andconsens

3、us$1.17.Adjustingforone-timesavings-relatedcosts,CoreEPSof$1.36waswellaheadofour$1.18onsamebasis.Upsidewasbroad-based,butwenoteunderwritingresultsseemedfavorableandthetaxratewas3-4ptslowerthanexpected.WhileVIIwaslowerthannormal(unsurprising),overallNIIwaswellaboveourestimates.Weexpec

4、tsharestorespondwelltoabroad-basedbeat,butwouldn'texpectameaningfulmovehigherinforwardestimates.Callisat9amET(877-209-9920).PRU–ACoreBeatandaFarMoreConservativeLTCBlockPosttheChargePRUreported2Q18Op.EPSof$3.01vs.our$3.02andconsensus$3.07.Resultsincludednet($0.19)ofunusualitems,leavin

5、gCoreEPSat$3.20,wellaboveus/consensus.SignificantLTC-drivenGAAP&Statutorychargelargelytoremovemorbidityimprovementassumptioniswelcomeadjustment(andwillpressureotherstofollowsuit),inourview,andhasnoimpactoncapitaldeploymentoutlook.Weprovidefarmoredetailwithin.Theinitialresponsemightbe

6、negativegiventhesizeofthecharge,butwewouldbebuyersofweakness.Callisat11amET(877-777-1971).VOYA–SolidCoreResultsDemonstrateOngoingProgressTowardEPSTargetVOYAreported2Q18Op.EPSof$1.13vs.our$1.04andconsensus$1.09.Adjustingforone-timeitems,CoreEPSof$1.20waswellaheadofexpectations(ouresti

7、mateassumed$0.05dragfromloweralternatives/prepays).Buybackswereinlineandcapitalpositionremainssupportiveof2H18$500mofbuybacks.3Q18outlooksuggestsrun-rateof$1.12beforeconsideringimpactofbuybacks,organicgrowthandincrementalexpensesaves,whichshouldsupportcurrent3Q18consensus.Weexpectsha

8、restorespond