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1、EquityResearch8January2018U.S.Insurance/LifeINDUSTRYUPDATE2018/19Outlook:WillLifeInsuranceU.S.Insurance/LifeStrongPerformanceContinue?POSITIVEUnchangedGoodYearforLifeInsuranceStocks.2017wasafavorableyearforthelifeinsuranceForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandstocksw
2、iththesectorrallyingin4Qbasedonrecoveringinterestrates,strongequityearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseemarkets,taxreform,andeasingFederalregulatoryrisks.Itwasalsoayearofsubstantialtableonpage2.corporateactionsincludingMetLife’sspinoffofBrighthousetofocusonitsUSgroupb
3、enefitsandinternationalbusinessesaswellasseveralcompaniesannouncingtheirU.S.Insurance/Lifeexitfromlegacyvariableannuityexposures.Theindustry’sabilitytooffsetanearningJayGelb,CFAdragfromaflatyieldcurveisstillaconcernbutitappearsmanageable.Theneteffect+12125261561ofUSco
4、rporatetaxreformcouldboostfutureearningpowerformostofthelifejay.gelb@barclays.cominsurers(largestboostshouldbeforUNM,TMK,AMP).BCI,USSueLeeMuchofthegoodnewsnowappearspricedintothelifeinsurancestocks,althoughwe+12125268190believethereisstillupsidepotential.Oursenseislif
5、einsurerP/Emultiplescanstillsue.lee@barclays.commovehighertoaround12x(adjustedfortaxreform).ThisisbecauseifinterestratesBCI,USandequitymarketskeeprising,thenforwardEPSestimatesshouldalsoincrease.IftheAndrewKarpyieldcurvesteepened,wewouldlikelyenvisionupsideEPSscenario
6、s.+12125269015FurtherUpsidePotentialAppearsReasonable.Ifthe10-yearTreasuryyieldandrew.karp@barclays.comapproaches3%alongwithanequitymarkettailwind,wethinkbellwetherlifeinsurerBCI,USP/Evaluationscouldreasonablyexpandtocloserto12x(valuationmultiplestendtoKaraMarciscano,
7、CFAcorrectfasterthanforwardEPSestimatesforlifeinsurers).Still,wearemindfulthatthis+12125269031wouldmeanareturntopre-2008valuationmultiples.ThemedianlifeinsurerP/Ehaskara.marciscano@barclays.comalreadyrecoveredto10x(adjustedfortaxreform),butmultiplescouldincreaseifrate
8、sBCI,USrise,theyieldcurvesteepens,andequitiesalsorise.WecontinuetoOverweightPRU,UNM,LNC.PrudentialhasEPSpowerof$13basedonour
