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1、2018HVACSurveySurveySuggestsaStrong2Q,butPre-buyDynamicsBearWatchingOurlatestHVACdistributorsurveysuggestsstrong2Qtrendsintheresidentialmarket,withnear-termdemandgrowthexpectationsintheHSD+rangelookingfair,andcontinuingatMSDgoingforward.Specificallyfortheq
2、uarter,respondentsindicated~7.5%growth,withasolidfinishforJune(+6%)likelyaidedbyweather(noteoursurveyhashistoricallyunderstatedactualHARDIresults).Thissaid,followingthereleaseofthestrongMayHARDIprint(+20%)inlate-June,expectationsasperthestocksarenowhigher,
3、andwhilewedon’texpectresultstodisappoint,wethinkmostoftheupsideislikelypricedinatthisstage.Lookingto2H,pre-buydynamicsbearwatching,asmostrespondentsindicatedsomelevelofearlybuyingaheadofmid-yearpriceincreases(inventorycommentarywasstriking,upsignificantlyf
4、romlastyear),whichwouldseemtohavethemostdirectimpactonthosewiththird-partydistribution(IR,UTX),whiletariffrelatedcommentaryduring2Qearningsseasonwillalsobecloselywatched.Incommercialmarkets,thedemandpicturehasalsoimprovedvslastyear’ssurvey,withnear-termgro
5、wthlookingintheMSD+range,withabackdropthatcontinuestosupportlowtoMSDgoingforward.Onthecompetitiveandtechnologyfront,Trane(IR)movedto#1inhighefficiencyresiproducts,overtakingCarrier,whileGoodmanremainstheleaderinentrylevel,nowfollowedbyRheem(privatelyheld)w
6、hichlookstobeanupandcomerhere.Carrierretookitstopspotinhighefficiencycommercialunits.·2018HVACsurvey.Wereceivedresponsesfrom~160independentdistributorsfromlateJune/earlyJuly.Forthetenthconsecutiveyear,J.P.MorganpartneredwithHARDI,theassociationrepresenting
7、independentHVACRdistributioninNorthAmerica.·Residemandremainsstrong...ResiHVACindustryshipmentshavebeenstrongsofarin2QwithAHRIinApril/Mayup6%/8%andHARDIup6%/20%inApril/May.Surveyresultsweresupportiveofstrongdemand,withrespondentsseeing+7.5%growthin2Qoveral
8、lwithJuneslightlyslower,butstillsolidat~6%.Fromourstandpoint,followingamuchbetterthanexpectedHARDIprintinMay,theseresultsconfirmthat2Qwasindeedstrong(betterthaninitialexpectations),thoughthereispotentialthats
