瑞信-美股-金融业-2020年美国消费者金融展望-2020.1.pdf

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1、2020ConsumerFinanceOutlookMosheOrenbuchJamesUlanHoangNguyen212538679521232582352123253357moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comjames.ulan@credit-suisse.comhoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTI

2、FICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrepor

3、t.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.KeyTakeawaysCreditCardIssuers:Lend-CentricModelPrevails.Weexpectcardloanstogrow~4-5%in2020andprivatelabelcardloanstogrow~6%.Weexpectcompetitioninrewardstocontinuetoremainint

4、ense.Issuerswhocangrowlendingbalancesreasonablywhilecontrollingcreditandoperatingexpenseswillbethemostsuccessful;SYFisourtoppick.Mostissuersinourspacedonotactivelytakeexposuretochangesinrateoutlook,astheytrytoremainneutral.Stillhighconsumerconfidenceandlowerg

5、aspriceshouldalsobeaplusforconsumersandhencethecardissuers.Networks.Webelievecontinuedstrongseculartailwindinmajorregionswillpushthenetworkshighergoingforward.Potentialreboundincurrencyvolatilityshouldalsohelpearnings.Meanwhile,wecouldseetheheadwindsofdollara

6、ppreciationagainstearningstosubsidesomewhatin2020.Furthermore,thecompletionofVisaEuropetechnicalmigrationshouldallowbothVandMAtoraisepricinggoingforward.WefavorVgivenitsdominantpositionintheU.S.marketaswellastheabilitytopushforhigherpricingandadditionalproduc

7、tsinEurope.Student:2020willlikelyfeaturerobustcompetitionwithrefiplayerspushingforcustomersandEarnest/SoFirecalibratingin-schoolstrategiesfor2020/2021.Originationsshouldgrowinthemid-singledigitsandDQ/NCOratestoincreasemodestly.Regulatorscouldbecomeagreaterfac

8、tor,dependingonpolitics.EventheTrumpadministrationhasdiscusseddischargeabilityinbankruptcyandarefiprogram.WeexpectSLMtooutperformasinvestorscometounderstandthatfreecollegeand/ordebtcancel