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1、Completed07Dec201701:06AMESTDisseminated07Dec201701:07AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch07December2017CorrectedNote(Seepage35fordetails)Specialty&ConsumerFinance2018Outlook:ExtraInningsOneofWallStreet’sfavoriteclichédquestionsseemstobe“whatinningareweSpecialty&ConsumerFinancein?”
2、Inkeepingwiththatmetaphor,webelievewehaveenteredextrainningsofACRichardShaneanepicgame.Lookingdownthelineup,itispossibletoimaginethegame(1-415)315-6701continuing.Lowunemployment,nascentwagegrowth,steadyhomepricerichard.b.shane@jpmorgan.comappreciation,abenignregulatoryenvironm
3、ent,andtaxreformcreateapotentiallyBloombergJPMASHANEcompellingbackdrop(i.e.,equivalentofdeepbullpens).ButweneverwanttoMelissaWedel,CFAforgetthatonceagameisinextrainnings,itisonlyapitchfrombeingover.A(1-415)315-6763reboundinvolatility,theFedunwind,inflatedfinancialassetpric
4、es,negativemelissa.wedel@jpmorgan.comsovereignyields,creditnormalizationandpoliticalchaoscanbeviewedasveteranJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCsluggersliningthebenches.NB:Notonlybigbatscanendgames;ahangingknuckleballinthe11thinningtoa.254hittermayendtheseasonintears.Withthatinmind,webeli
5、eveinvestorsshouldbegintode-riskduring2018.Wedon’tadvisegoinghomebeforethegameisover,butitisprobablynotagreattimetoorderanotherroundofdogs,ifonewantstobeatthetrafficoutofthestadiumwhenthegameends.CreditCards–Growthmathandtimingwilllikelydrivearrayofresultsin2018.Pleasereferto
6、“DeepDive–GrowthMath”beginningonp.3fordetailedanalysisofseasoningcurvesoncreditcardprofitability.IncreaseAXPPTto$105on14.5xmultipleof2019eEPS(from$102on14.0xmultiple),drivenbyspendstrength.IncreaseSYFPTto$39(from$37)on2019EPSaccretionfromanticipatedacquisitionofPayPalportfolio
7、.Overalltoppick–COFAutoFinance–Autocreditappearstobestabilizing.Twoyearsoftighterunderwritingandreducedsupplyofusedcarsfromhurricanes(combinedwithlaborandwagestability)suggestautoNCOsareapproachingcyclicalpeakconsistentwithourpredictionsofamoderatecycle.IncreaseALLYPTto$32on1
8、.0xmultipleof2019eadj.TBV(from$29on0.9xmultiple),drivenbystab
