j.p. 摩根-美股-金融业-3季度消费者金融预览

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1、Completed11Oct201712:14AMEDTDisseminated11Oct201712:15AMEDTNorthAmericaEquityResearch11October20173Q17ConsumerFinancePreviewWhat'sintheCards?Headedinto3QEPSwearewitnessingashiftinsentimentfortheconsumerfinanceSpecialty&ConsumerFinancegroup.Whilewebelieveinvestorsremainfocusedon

2、normalizationofcredit,thereACRichardShaneseemstobeincreasingdifferentiationbaseduponhorizon.NameslikeSYF(OW)and(1-415)315-6701DFS(N)maybenefitintheS/Tfromlowerexpectations.Investorswithlongerrichard.b.shane@jpmorgan.comhorizonsshouldfocusonSLM(OW–Growth)andCOF(OW–GARP).,inourvi

3、ew.BloombergJPMASHANEWealsocontinuetoseeL/TvalueinAXPeventhoughinterestseemstobewaningMelissaWedel,CFAfollowingYTDoutperformance.(1-415)315-6763melissa.wedel@jpmorgan.com3Q17:EmbraceYourPeers’Fears.YTDDFS(-7.4%)andSYF(-12.5%)haveJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCunder-performedthebro

4、aderconsumerfinancesegment.Whilewebelievetheremaybedownsideriskto2018EPSestimatesforDFS,webelievelowexpectationsfor3Q17mayprovidethefoundationintoYE17.Wenotethat3QestimateshavedriftedlowerfollowingDFS’spresentationataconferenceinSeptember.Similarly,webelieveSYF’searlierguidance

5、forcontinuedreservebuildinto3Q17(~$300M/quarter)minimizesdownsideriskintotheprint.WearelessconfidentthatSYF’sNCOrateswillplateauin2H18asmanagementhasindicated.2018:LastYear’sInvestmentWillBeNextYear’sReturn.OurfavoritenamesinthegroupareCOFandSLM.Weview‘18asaseminalyearforCOF(a

6、fter11yearsofpatience,investorsshouldfinallyseebetterthan$8ofEPS).Inourview,COF’ssubstantialinvestmentingrowthwillstarttoberealized.SLMremainsthebestgrowthnamewithinourcoverage.WebelieveSLMcanlayerassetsontotheexistingportfolio,drivingexpansionw/olooseningunderwriting.Weseelegi

7、slativereform(whichappearselusivefornow)asanasymmetricandmaterialcatalyst.AssessingtheImpactofTaxReform.WithD.C.turningtowardstaxreform,weconsidertaxscenariosforthegroup.Thereareseveralaspectsoftaxreformtoconsider,thoughsomecriticaldetailshaveyettobeclarified.Ouranalysissugges

8、tsthata25%corporatetaxratein2018wouldresultinanestimat