J.P.摩根-美股-金融业-消费者金融2018年展望：又一回合-20171207-37页

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1、Completed07Dec201701:06AMESTDisseminated07Dec201701:07AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch07December2017CorrectedNote(Seepage35fordetails)Specialty&ConsumerFinance2018Outlook:ExtraInningsOneofWallStreet’sfavoriteclichédquestionsseemstobe“whatinningareweSpecialty&ConsumerFinancein

2、?”Inkeepingwiththatmetaphor,webelievewehaveenteredextrainningsofACRichardShaneanepicgame.Lookingdownthelineup,itispossibletoimaginethegame(1-415)315-6701continuing.Lowunemployment,nascentwagegrowth,steadyhomepricerichard.b.shane@jpmorgan.comappreciation,abenignregulatoryenvi

3、ronment,andtaxreformcreateapotentiallyBloombergJPMASHANEcompellingbackdrop(i.e.,equivalentofdeepbullpens).ButweneverwanttoMelissaWedel,CFAforgetthatonceagameisinextrainnings,itisonlyapitchfrombeingover.A(1-415)315-6763reboundinvolatility,theFedunwind,inflatedfinancialass

4、etprices,negativemelissa.wedel@jpmorgan.comsovereignyields,creditnormalizationandpoliticalchaoscanbeviewedasveteranJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCsluggersliningthebenches.NB:Notonlybigbatscanendgames;ahangingknuckleballinthe11thinningtoa.254hittermayendtheseasonintears.Withthatinmin

5、d,webelieveinvestorsshouldbegintode-riskduring2018.Wedon’tadvisegoinghomebeforethegameisover,butitisprobablynotagreattimetoorderanotherroundofdogs,ifonewantstobeatthetrafficoutofthestadiumwhenthegameends.CreditCards–Growthmathandtimingwilllikelydrivearrayofresultsin2018.Ple

6、asereferto“DeepDive–GrowthMath”beginningonp.3fordetailedanalysisofseasoningcurvesoncreditcardprofitability.IncreaseAXPPTto$105on14.5xmultipleof2019eEPS(from$102on14.0xmultiple),drivenbyspendstrength.IncreaseSYFPTto$39(from$37)on2019EPSaccretionfromanticipatedacquisitionofPay

7、Palportfolio.Overalltoppick–COFAutoFinance–Autocreditappearstobestabilizing.Twoyearsoftighterunderwritingandreducedsupplyofusedcarsfromhurricanes(combinedwithlaborandwagestability)suggestautoNCOsareapproachingcyclicalpeakconsistentwithourpredictionsofamoderatecycle.Increase

8、ALLYPTto$32on1.0xmultipleof2019eadj.TBV(from$29on0.9xmultiple),drivenbystab