j.p. 摩根-中国家庭债务评估-中国-金融业

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1、Completed29Nov201705:00PMHKTDisseminated29Nov201705:16PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch29November2017ChinaFinancialsPuttingthetempestintotheteapot–assessingChina’shouseholddebtForyears,China’scorporatedebthasbeenaprimaryconcernforequityinvestors,butBanks&FinancialServicesarapidincrease

2、inhousehold(HH)leveragehasrecentlybecomeanewareaoffocus.ACKatherineLeiThisreportprovidescomprehensiveanalysisoftheHHdebtprofileinChina–we(852)2800-8552concludethatsystemicriskremainscontainedinthemediumterm(outtoc.2020)katherine.lei@jpmorgan.comgiven:1)amanageableHHdebt-servicingrat

3、io,2)leveragelevelsthatarelowerthanBloombergJPMALEIint’lpeers,3)ahighHHsavingsrate,and4)relativelystablemacrogrowthandJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedemploymentrates.Disruptioncouldarisefromnon-bankhigh-yieldlenders,whichchargeannualpercentagerates(APR)rangingfrom~10%to5

4、00%,thoughwenoteGeorgeCaithatloansfromP2Pandmicro-lenders(online&offline)wereRMB2.4trnasof3Q17(852)2800-8557(~1.4%oftotalsocialfinancing).Despiteconcernsaboutcontagionrisks,thereisgeorge.cai@jpmorgan.comunlikelytobeasystemicHHdebtcrunch,inourview.Amongbankswecover,weJ.P.MorganSecuri

5、ties(AsiaPacific)LimitedthinkCMBisinabetterpositiontogrowinthissegmentfurther;butCiticcouldbeGraceGuanmoreexposedtoissuesarisingfromHHdebtduetoitsmorerapidgrowthin(852)2800-8511consumerendinginrecentyears.Grace.X.Guan@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedSurveyingChi

6、na'shouseholdleverage:China’shousehold(HH)debtreachedRMB39trnin1H17,andHHleverage(debt/GDP)rosefrom18%in2007to50%inStephenTsui,CFA1H17.BasedoncurrentratesofHHdebtincreases,weexpecttotalHHdebtand(852)2800-8592leveragewouldreachRMB64trnand61%by2020E,respectively,amanageablebutstephen.

7、tsui@jpmorgan.comlesscomfortablelevelgivenChina’srelativelyhighcorporateleverage.Fifty-oneJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedpercentofexistingHHdebtismortgagesand22%issmallbusinessloans.TheriskHeadofChinaEquityStrategy/profileofHHloansvariesmaterially(Table1).ChiefChinaEconomis

8、tACOverallcreditri