美股-金融业-2018年Q3商业金融预览.docx

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1、3Q18CommercialFinancePreviewNorthAmericaEquityResearch30October2018BDCshareshadmixedperformancein3Q18,butthemarketvolatilityinOctoberhasdraggedtotalreturnslower.Thoughconcernsaboutthequalityofloanspersist,macrotailwindsremain,asbuyoutactivitydrivesissuanceincrementallyhighera

2、nddefaultsremainlow.(J.P.MorganHYandLeveragedLoanstrategistPeterAcciavattiprojectsleveragedloandefaultswillrunat1.5%in2019.)·Cov-liteissuanceandleveragecreepinghigher.Cov-liteissuancereachedasecondsequentialpost-crisispeakin3Q18,totaling$152Bin3Q18,a26%Q/Qincrease.YTDthrough9/

3、30/18,cov-liteissuancehastotaled$375B(equaltoallcov-liteissuanceinFY2017)andisontracktoreach$500BofissuanceinFY2018.Leveragethroughdebttranchecontinuestocreephigheronareportedbasis.In3Q18,leveragewas5.0xfirst-liendebttoEBITDA(upfrom4.7xatYE2017)and5.8xsecond-liendebttoEBITDA(u

4、pfrom5.4xatYE2017).·Middlemarketissuancerobust;spreadtrendsvarybyquality.3Q18wasthestrongestquarterYTDformiddlemarketissuance,whichtotaled$3Bin3Q18($8BYTD)withLBOsandrefinancingsaccountedfor47%and18%,respectively.Spreadsforhigher-ratedBB/BB-loanswidenedin3Q18to274.0bpsfrom232.

5、0bpsin2Q18,thoughspreadsforlower-ratedB+/Bloanswererelativelystable,ending3Q18at386.0bps(upmodestlyfrom378.7bpsin2Q18).·Noratingchanges,butloweringsomePTs.WelowervariousPTstoreflectmultiplecompressiondrivenbyconcernsaboutcreditqualityanddeterioratingmarketsentimentgenerally.S

6、pecialty&ConsumerFinanceRichardShaneAC(1-415)315-6701richard.b.shane@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMASHANEJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCMelissaWedel,CFA(1-415)315-6763melissa.wedel@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCCharlesArestia(1-415)315-6757charles.arestia@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecu

7、ritiesLLCHarshavRaj(91-22)6157-3340harshav.raj@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedEquityRatingsandPriceTargetsCompanyTickerMktCap($mn)Price($)RatCuringPrevPriceTaCurrgetPrevApolloInvestmentAINVUS1,072.484.99Nn/c5.006.00AresCapitalARCCUS6,931.0216.27OWn/c17.50n/cBlackRock

8、CapitalInvestmentCorpBKCCUS406.215.72OWn/c6.006.50OaktreeSpec