美股-金属与采矿业-北美金属与采矿业q3盈利预览

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1、NorthAmericaMetals&Mining3QEarningsPreview&CalendarNorthAmericaEquityResearch11October2018Thereisstillahighlevelofuncertaintysurroundingtrade,andthemarketappearstocontinuetodiscountaworst-casescenario.WhileSection232tariffsremaininplaceforMexicoandCanadaafterthethreecountriesreachedanewtradeagree

2、menttoreplaceNAFTA,weanticipatethosetariffswillberemovedinduetime.Weseetworeasonsthemarketshouldnotbesonegativeonthetradeoutcome.ThefirstisChina’sblueskyagenda,drivenbyitsgrowingmiddleclass,isleadingtheChinesegovernmenttoprioritizeenvironmentalconcernsandimplementcapacityclosures.Thesecondreasonis

3、domestically,withtheTrumpAdministrationatthehelm,evenifSection232weretoberemovedtomorrow,foreignproducerswouldbemorecautiousaboutdumpingsteelintotheU.S.,inouropinion.WebelievetheTrumpAdministrationwillenforceexistingtradelawsplustheVietnamcircumventioncasewilldeterimportersfromcasuallybuying“cheap

4、”foreignsteel.Steeltradeisnotnearlytheriskitwashistorically.WelikeNUEandSTLD,asthesestocksaretradingattheirlowestP/Eoffofnear-termguidanceinthepast10yearssincetheybegangivingmid-quarterguidance.WealsocontinuetothinkXisattractiveandwillgeneratelotsofFCFinthecomingquarters.·AKS’resultsshouldincrease

5、q/qonamid-single-digitincreaseinshipmentsandslightincreaseinaveragerealizedprices.WeexpectXtopoststrongerresultsq/q,withhighershipmentsandhigherrealizedpricinginFlatRolled.Weforecastrealizedpricingtobeup12%q/qforSTLCandestimateEBITDAmargintobe29%.ForSTLD,higherresultsinitsSteelOperationsfromsolidd

6、emandandmetalspreadexpansionshoulddrivehigherq/qearnings,whileresultsinMetalsRecyclingprofitsshoulddecreaseq/qandFabricationshouldbeflat.NUE’sSteelMillsresultsareexpectedtobeupq/qoncontinuedstrongearningsfromthesheetandplatemills.ForCMCwewillbelookingforpotentialupdatesontheacquisitionofGerdau’sre

7、barassets,thecompany’sFY2019outlook,andmanagement’sinsightsonrebarimportsanddomesticcapacityadditions.ForTMST,weforecastshipmentstoincrease~1%q/q,drivenbyenergyandindustrialvolumes,andbasepricestobeup2%q/q.Weexpe