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1、11October2017Americas/CanadaEquityResearchMetals&MiningMetals&MiningResearchAnalystsSECTORFORECASTAnitaSoni,P.Eng.,CFA4163524587anita.soni@credit-suisse.comQ3earningspreview–assessingprogressRobertReynolds,CPA,CA,CFA4163524516■CreditSuisseisgenerallyaboveconse
2、nsusintoQ3earningsasrobert.reynolds@credit-suisse.comcommoditypricesprovideatailwind:WeareaboveconsensusonMarkLlanes,CPA,CA13/27stocksundercoverageandbelowonjust7/27.HigherQoQprices4163524585forgold($1,278/ozvs.$1,258/oz),copper($2.88/lbvs.$2.57/lb)andzincmark
3、.llanes@credit-suisse.com($1.34/lbvs.$1.18/lb)provideanearningstailwindandwillalsobenefitprovisionallypricedvolumes,leadingrealizedpricestoexceedthequarteraverageforconcentrateproducers.Currencystrengthisaheadwind,inparticularforCADproducers(CAD0.80inQ3vs.0.74
4、inQ2);althoughwenotethatin-placehedgesshouldmitigatethisriskasitrelatestoQ3.■Keythemesareoperationalconsistencyandcapitalallocation:Goldproducersarewellpositionedtomeet2017guidanceasweforecastanaverageof74%oftheguidancemid-pointwillbeproducedbytheendofQ3.Costs
5、alsocontinuetotrackwellvs.expectations,withgoldproducerAISConaverage2%belowtheguidancemidpoint,althoughcapitalspendingdoestendtobeQ4weighted.AtDenverthetoneonM&Awasmutedandtherewasafocusonreturns,whichweexpecttocontinue.■Forecastingabeat:LIFduetostrongpelletpr
6、emiumsandunsoldconcentratefromQ2,HBMduetocopper&concentratepricingtailwinds,NEMonconcentratepricingtailwindsandstrongoperations,PVGonrecentops,GGonPenasquitotailwindsandAEMonstrongoperations.■Forecastingamiss:CCOonlowerrealizedpricesandcurrencyheadwinds,FMashe
7、dgescontinuetobeaheadwind,SSRoncurrencyheadwindsandEGOasKisladagcontinuestolag.■Stockcalls:InlargecapgoldNEMandAEMareourpreferredchoicesintoearnings.WearealsomoreconstructiveonGG(whichwillalsoreportareserveupdate).WelikePVGinthemid-tierspace.InbasemetalsLUNiso
8、urtopfundamentalpickandwelikeHBMintoQ3results.Figure1:CreditSuissevs.BloombergconsensusQ3EPSestimates$0.26$0.24$0.22$0.20$0.18$0.16$0.14$0.12$0.10$0.08$0.06$0.04$0.02$-$(0.02)$(0.0
