瑞信-美股-生物科技行业-美国生物科技3季度营收预览：大企业强劲会持续到年末

《瑞信-美股-生物科技行业-美国生物科技3季度营收预览：大企业强劲会持续到年末》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、13October2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBiotechnologyUSBiotechnologyResearchAnalystsQUARTERLYAlethiaYoung2125380640alethia.young@credit-suisse.comEarningsPreviewfor3Q17;wethinklarge-capElianaMerle2125380678strengthwillcontinueintoyear-endeliana.merle@cr

2、edit-suisse.comOverall,wethinkmostcompanieslooktobein-linetoabovetheirDerekYuan,Ph.D.2123254589consensusestimates.Largecapbiotechstockshavebeenstrongaswexiaoqiu.yuan@credit-suisse.comheadintothe3Q17reportingperiod.Additionally,thismorningwepublishedtheresultsfr

3、omourinvestorsentimentsurveywithasamplesizeof135investors:SeeourInvestorSentimentsurveyresultsslidedeck.Wherewehaveconvictionandarefocusedintoquarter:WethinkBiogenhaspotentialtobeatbasedmostlyonSpinrazaUStrendsafterreviewingarecentslidedeckfromtheCureSMAwebsite

4、.WewouldexpectBIVVwillhaveasolidquarteraswediscussedattheendofour2Qnote.Besidesthat,wearefocusedonproductsalesfromRegeneron'sDupixent,Gilead'sHCVfranchiseandBiogen’sSpinraza.Keychangesinourmodels:1)weincreasedour3Q17estimateonSpinrazafrom$228Mto$356M,2)welowere

5、dGILD2018HCVto$6.4Bfrom$7.8BtoaccountforpricingriskfromABBV’snewregimen,3)weloweredour3Q17Dupixentestimateto$86Mfrom$111Mtomorecloselymatchscripttrends,4)weslightlyincreasedoperatingexpensesforAmgen,5)loweredZejulaestimateto$131Mvs.$152Mpreviously.One-lineearni

6、ngssummaryforeachcompany:■Gilead:WeareforecastingabeatforthequarterdrivenbyHCVandstrongnewproducttrendsinHIV.Weloweredour2018HCVestimateto$6.4BledbystrongAbbVietrendssofar.■Biogen:we’reforecastingatopandbottomlinebeat.WethinkSpinrazacouldhaveastrongbeatthisquar

7、ter.■Amgen:Weareforecastinganin-linequartertoslightmissonthetopandbottom-line,butwedon'texpectsignificantvolatilityduetothisresult.■Celgene:WeareforecastinganinlinequarterandslightlyunderconsensusonOtzelawhilein-lineonRevlimid.■Alexion:weexpectMGapprovalon10/23

8、andthinksharescouldmove3-5+%onupsidebutdown10-15%onasetback.Wethinkthatquarterlyresultswillbein-linewithconsensusonatop&bottomlinebasis.■Bioverativ:weestimateanin-linequarte