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1、22July2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBiotechnologyU.S.BiotechnologyResearchAnalystsCOMMENTEvanSeigerman2123254463evan.seigerman@credit-suisse.comEarningsPreview:2Q2019SentimentinUSLargeCapBiotechremainspoor,asmacroandcompany-specificoverhangsremainafocusforinves
2、tors:Year-to-datetheIBB(-10.5%)andXBI(-0.7%)haveunderperformedtheS&P500(+18.5%YTD).Inourview,investorsremainconcernedoverdrugpricing,growth,andrecentphase3failures.TherecentdecisionbytheTrumpAdministrationtokeepthestatusquowithMedicarePartDrebatesdoesnotfullyresolveconc
3、ernsoverdrugpricereform,asthefocusshiftmayshifttoIPIforreimbursementinPartB.Therearealsokeylegaloverhangs,particularlytheongoinglawsuitbetweenAmgenv.Novartis/SandozoverEnbrelandtheIPRfiledbyMylanregardingTecfideraIP.Thedistrictcourtisexpectedanyday,ascompanymanagementha
4、dguidedtoamid-2019ruling.Alternatively,wecouldseeasettlementbetweenthecompanies.Againstthisbackdropofdrugpricing,somelegaloverhangsregardingIP,weseecontinuednegativesentimentinthesector:Still,withtherecentGilead/GalapagosdealandtheAbbVie/Allergandeal,transactionscontinu
5、e,whichcouldhelpreversesomesentimenttrendsintotheremainderof2019.Overall,wethinkthat2Qresultsacrossnamesshouldbefine(asresultsaretypicallybetterthanin1Q),althoughwehighlightareaswherenamescouldbestronger(VertexandNeurocrine)orweaker(BiogenandRegeneron).Todiscussourviewo
6、nthesectorgoinginto2Qearnings,wearehostingacallwithourGlobalBiopharmaColleagues:Today,Monday,July22@10AMET,Dial-in:US(866)591-6858,OUS(706)758-9648,ID:4981367IncreaseinM&AwouldmostlikelyimprovesentimentinBiotech(morereflectiveofLargeCapPharmadealsthisyear):TheGileadandG
7、alapagos$5.1Bdealhelpedrechargeinterest.SomeinvestorsmaysitoutthisroundforGilead,butwebelievethecompanyisbecomingamoreinterestingstory.Overall,wecontinuetobepositiveonthesector,andlookforevidenceofincreasingM&Afocus,especiallyforBiogenandGilead.VertexandNeurocrinewellpo
8、isedaheadofthequarter:ForVertex,weprojecthigherEPS($1.13)comparedtoFactSetconsensus($1.07),andaboveaveragereve
