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1、ABGlobalResearch16July2018U.S.Biotechnology2Q18Preview:WillEarningsInterrupttheMomentum?2QSetupEarningsseasonkicksoffwithread-throughsthisweekfrommajorpharmaresults(JNJ,NVS)andbiotechcompaniesreportingtheweekafter(BIIB,GILD,VRTX,CELG,AMGN).Thesectoressentially
2、bottomedaroundApril6withtheINCYepacadostatfailure,buoyedquicklybyM&A(AVXS-NVS),incrementalclarityonpotentialWhiteHouseactionondrugpricing,andanumberofhighprofileclinicalwins(MDGL,SRPT,XLRN).Fromhere,wedon'tsee2Qresultsgenerallydisruptingthemomentum,particularl
3、yas2Qexpectationsappearreasonable(reachableonsales/revenues,beatableonEPS).Further,weexpectthenear-termclinicalcatalystenvironment(BAN2401updateon7/25)toovershadow2Qprintandlikelyprovidesometailwindtoinflows–particularlyagainststillattractivemultiples(10-15x20
4、18EPSvs.S&P500at17.5x).For2Qresultsspecifically,weseeGILDandREGNwiththemostimpactfulcommercialupdates(i.e.,HIVfranchise,Dupixent).KeyNamestoWatchBIIB–BAN2401datashouldovershadowanymodestweaknessonMSorSpinraza.Indeed,characterizationofBAN2401data,nextsteps,anda
5、nyshiftsinoptionalityaroundaducanumabwouldallbehigherimpactthanthe2Qprint.GILD:TheHIVfranchiseshouldbouncebackafteraweak1Q.Whilewe'remodestlyaboveon2QHIVsales(UBSe:$3.468B+7%q/q;cons:$3.456B),we'recautiousontherisk/rewardnotingthatGILDhasoutperformedtheotherla
6、rge-capsMTD(ex-BIIB)andanotherHIVmisswouldraisequestions.REGN–WeareaboveonWWDupixentsales($188Mvs.$178M)andhavestrongconvictiononaU.S.beat($170Mvs.$152M).Wethinkthecompanyhasastrongregulatorycatalystandpipelinenarrativetolayoutover2HwithmultipleFDAapprovals/li
7、neextensionsandcriticalpipelineupdates–mostofwhicharenotinStreetnumbers.WethinkREGN'smomentumcontinuesthrough3Qearnings.Company-SpecificPreviewsOnthefollowingpageswedetailcompany-specificpreviewsforAMGN,BIIB,CELG,GILD,VRTX,REGN,andINCY.www.ubs.com/investmentr
8、esearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE21.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asare
