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1、CreditSuisseEquityResearchAmericas/UnitedStatesUSElectricalEquipment/Multi-IndustryQ32017EarningsPreview:Risingtide,withfewerholesinthehullthanatQ2earningsOctober2017USEE/MIRESEARCHTEAMJulianMitchellRonnieWeissResearchAnalystAssociateAnalyst+12123256668+12125386404julian.mitchell@credit-su
2、isse.comronnie.weiss@credit-suisse.comLeeSandquistJasonMakishiAssociateAnalystAssociateAnalyst+12123252245+12125388125lee.sandquist@credit-suisse.comJason.makishi@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUR
3、EANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakin
4、gtheirinvestmentdecision.EE/MIQ317EarningsPreviewWehavemadeanumberofestimateandTPchangesaspartofourEarningsPreview,andshowinsideourupdatedEPSbridges(including2018,forSeptemberyearendcompanies).Short-cycledemandhassurprisedourexpectationsinrecentmonths,andoursalesforecastsforthelikesofDOV,F
5、TV,GDI,ROKareaboveconsensusfortheSeptQ.Overall,weforecastavg.EE/MIorganicsalesgrowthof5%inQ3(thehighestgrowthratesince2014),after4%inQ2;FXweassumeisa0.7%salestailwindinQ3,andthisshouldriseinthenextcoupleofquarters.Amidstongoingpressureforportfoliochange,weshowinsideourupdatedSOTPs.Wethinkp
6、ortfoliopressureonUTXandETNinparticularislikelytoincrease,iftheirvaluationmultiplesremainlow.Short-termperspectiveonstocksintoearnings:–Largecaps:Weseeafavorablerisk/rewardatJCI(improvingFCFperformanceinthequarterandreiterationofitscommitmentto80%+conversioninFY18),andRockwellAutomation(we
7、expectabeat;theonlypotentialheadwindtoguidanceistax,whichwethinkwouldbegivena‘pass’;investmentheadwindsmaybeoffsetbyoperatingleverage).Weseealessfavorablerisk/rewardatEMR(investorsappeartothinksell-sideconsensuslooksveryconservativeforFY18,butwearedonotagree)a
