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1、25November2019AsiaPacific/AustraliaEquityResearchDiversifiedMetals&MiningBaseMetalsForecastsTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourexceptionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchtodeliverSECTORFORECASTincisivecross-sectorandcross-borderthematicinsightsforourclients.Metalslosetheirsheenundersoftdem
2、andResearchAnalystsMatthewHope■Weexpectrecoveryfromtheglobalmanufacturingslumpwillbeslow,61282054669matthew.hope@credit-suisse.comsuppressingmetalsdemandin2020,despitetheprospectofamini-dealConorRowleyloweringtradewartensions.ManufacturinginvestmentinChinahasbeena442078839156casualtyofthetradewar
3、,butweexpectafulldeal,notjustreducedconor.rowley@credit-suisse.comtensionswouldbeneededtoseecapacityadded.InROW,centralbanksSamWebbareoutofinterestrateammunitiontorestartstalledeconomies.Welookfor61282054535sam.webb@credit-suisse.comarecoverybeginningin2H-20andpickingupspeedin2021.MichaelSlifirsk
4、iFigure1:Revisedcopper,aluminium,aluminaandnickelforecasts61392801845michael.slifirski@credit-suisse.com3Q-194Q-192019E2020E2021E2022E2023ELT(real)CarstenRiek442078839672CopperNewUS$/t5,805,8405,9975,9505,5164,7405,4036,615carsten.riek@credit-suisse.com8FahadTariq,CPA,CANewUS$/lb2.632.652.722.702
5、.502.152.453.004163524593OldUS$/lb2.642.952.802.802.702.702.783.00fahad.tariq@credit-suisse.comChg%0%-10%-3%-4%-7%-20%-12%0%CaioRibeiroAluminiuNewUS$/t1,761,7421,7911,7501,7501,8001,9002,8652123257804m5caio.b.ribeiro@credit-suisse.comNewUS$/lb0.800.790.810.790.790.820.861.30CurtWoodworth,CFA21232
6、55117OldUS$/lb0.800.850.830.870.901.001.061.30curt.woodworth@credit-suisse.comChg%0%-7%-2%-9%-12%-18%-18%0%YangLuoAluminaNewUS$/t29280332310330345345400852210163289yang.luo@credit-suisse.com(spot)OldUS$/t29380357360370390398400PrateekSingh9912267773894Chg%0%-26%-7%-14%-11%-12%-13%0%prateek.singh@
7、credit-suisse.comNickelNewUS$/t15,5815,94014,03615,43214,33014,33014,33014,775NeelkanthMishra6912267773716NewUS$/lb7.077.236.377.006.506.506.506.70neelkanth.mishra@credit-suisse.comOldUS$/lb7.035.605.955.856.006.506.63
