巴克莱-美股-金融业-美国消费者金融2018展望：减税为消费者金融注入新的活力

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1、EquityResearch11December2017U.S.ConsumerFinanceINDUSTRYUPDATE2018Outlook:TaxCutsBreatheNewU.S.ConsumerFinanceLifeintoConsumerFinanceRallyNEUTRALUnchangedCheapStocksGetCheaperwithTaxReformLikelyToPass:AstheoddsofpassageForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandhavegrown,duringthelastthreemonthsfinancia

2、lshaverallied(XLF16.6%vs.6.7%earningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeSPX).Thismovereflectsanattemptbythemarkettopricetheimpactofexpectedtaxtableonpage2.changes,butwestillseeadditionalupsidetomostofoursector,whichhascheapenedoverthelastyearvs.themarket.Despiterecentstrength,mostofourstocksaretradingU.S

3、.ConsumerFinancebelowtheirhistoricalP/Eratios(tax-adjusted)atatimewhenthebroadermarketismoreMarkC.DeVriesfullyvalued,soin2018weseeroomforadditionaloutperformancefromoursectorasthe+12125269484marketreconsidersthebenefitstothehealthoftheconsumerandcorporateprofitsfrommark.devries@barclays.comthetaxre

4、form.Whilewedon’texpecttoreviseourestimatesuntilthebillbecomeslaw,BCI,USweareraisingourpricetargetstoreflectthehighprobabilityofpassageandformostofTerryMa,CFAourOverweightstockswesee20%+upsideoverthenextyear.+12125267965terry.ma@barclays.comLend-centricCardStocksBenefitMost;UpgradingDFStoOWandSYFre

5、placesMTGBCI,USasOurTopPick:Theconsumerlendersshouldbenefitfrombothlowercorporatetaxratesandlowerpersonaltaxes.WeexpecttheadditionalcashfromlowerpersonalEvanLeewithholdingsstartingin2018willbeusedinparttoserviceconsumerdebt,likewesaw+12125262891evan.lee@barclays.comin2015whenhouseholdsgotaneffectiv

6、etaxcutfromlowerenergyprices.WeBCI,UScontinuetoexpectre-leveragingwillputupwardpressureoncreditcosts,butestimatethetaxcutcouldbenefitNCOsby5-15bpsperyearrelativetocurrentexpectations,andEllisFlanneryprovideadditionalupsidetoearningsafteraccountingforlowercorporatetaxes,+12125267179potentiallybenefi

7、ttingmultiplesthathavebeenweigheddownbytheprospectofellis.flannery@barclays.comcontinuedcreditdeterioration.Weseeprimeandnear-primelendersSYFandDFSBCI,USbenefittingmostandbelievethestockswithstilldiscounted