j.p, 摩根-美股-金融业-特种金融2018年展望：偏好税收与资本回报，看好消费金融

《j.p, 摩根-美股-金融业-特种金融2018年展望：偏好税收与资本回报，看好消费金融》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、5January2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchDoubleclickheretoselectasector.SpecialtyFinanceResearchAnalystsANNUALMosheOrenbuch2125386795moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.com2018Outlook:TaxandcapitalreturnJamesUlan2123258235favorable.Positiveonconsumerfinancejames.ulan@credit-suisse.com■W

2、ithin,wearemakingmaterialchangestoourtargetpricesandEPSHoangNguyen2123253357estimatesbutmakenoratingschanges.Also,pleaseseeourSpecialtyhoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comFinance2018Outlookslidepresentation.■CreditCardIssuers:Lend-CentricModelPrevails.Weexpectcardloanstogrow~6%in2017andpriva

3、telabel~1pptfaster.Weexpectcompetitioninrewardsandcobrandspacetocontinuetoremainaggressive.Issuerswhocangrowlendingbalanceswillcontinuetobemostsuccessful;SYFisourtoppick.Risingratesshouldbeatailwindformargins,withtheexceptionofAXP.Strongmacroeconomicsandtaxcutshouldalsobeaplusforconsum

4、ersentimentandhencethecardissuers.■Networks.Webelievethatcontinuedhealthyeconomicbackdropinmajorregionswillpushthenetworkshigherin2018.PotentialreboundincurrencyvolatilityandrecentdepreciationofUSDshouldalsohelpearnings.Furthermore,thecompletionofVisaEuropeintegrationshouldallowbothVan

5、dMAtoraisepricingin2018.WefavorVgivenitsdominantpositionintheU.S.marketaswellasmoreconsistentachievementofoperatingleverage■StudentLending.WebelieveinvestorswillbefocusedontheSenate’sHEAreauthorizationbillaftertheHousereleasedadraftthatwasfavorabletoprivatelenders.Additionally,wearefoc

6、usedoncompetitioninthein-schoollendingspaceasnewlendersenterorplantoenterthein-schoolmarket.OurfavoritenameremainsSallieMaeduetooperatingleverage,solidcredit,andgoodoriginations.■AutoLending.OurfavoritenameisSCasweexpect’18and’19EPStobenefitfromstrongcapitalreturn.Asasub-sector,autolen

7、dersarelikelytofacesomechallenges,specifically,flattishSAAR,increasingoff-leasevolume,andlessmix-shiftbenefittowardsSUVs/trucksawayfromcars.Sofarwehaveseenbankspullbackfromprimeandnear-primelendingbutcompetitionhasremainedfierceinsubprimelending,withnosignsofabatingmaterially■Non-pri